Verra Mobility crashed 75% after losing a major Avis contract, but the author argues this is oversold given the company's sticky Government Solutions segment (44% revenue, recurring contracts) and extremely cheap valuation (5x P/E, 0.65x sales). The bull case is asymmetric upside on cost cuts and business stabilization, though execution risk, debt levels, and further customer churn are significant risks.

VRRM is a undervalued tech company trading below revenue with a P/E under 5, bolstered by major government contracts with NYC and Hawaii that should provide revenue stability even if the Avis contract is lost. The company has strong fundamentals including projected $1B revenue, $300M+ EBITDA, and $60M in buybacks, though execution risk remains if Avis successfully internalizes their tolling/logistics operations.

A $1.18M options sweep on VRRM June 2026 $2.5 calls was placed immediately after a 70% stock collapse triggered by Avis contract termination (10% of revenue). The bull case argues the infrastructure moat remains intact with NYC DOT contracts and municipal traffic enforcement, suggesting massive overreaction and deep value opportunity at ~4x forward EV/EBITDA.