Intuit (INTU) has dropped 50% from peak valuations on two overblown fears: government free filing and AI disruption. The company's diversified, subscription-based business model with 100M users and 40%+ operating margins suggests significant mispricing, though regulatory and competitive risks remain material.

Claude AI can now complete federal and state taxes in 15 minutes for free, matching TurboTax results and threatening Intuit's core tax business which generates 29% of revenue. With INTU down only 50% from peak while AI-disrupted comps like Shutterstock (-88%), Getty (-98%), and Chegg (-99.2%) have cratered further, the stock faces significantly more downside risk.