New Constructs argues Anthropic's rumored $2 trillion IPO valuation is drastically overpriced, valuing the company at only ~$150 billion based on massive operating losses ($8B in 2025), $518B in infrastructure commitments, and lack of competitive moat as open-source models compete. The IPO represents primarily insider liquidity rather than a sound investment, with early investors looking to cash out shares at inflated valuations to retail investors.

Author created a free dashboard tracking Anthropic's unreleased $2T+ valuation through derivatives markets (perp futures, prediction markets) and related tech stocks ahead of their investor day. Key risks include valuation uncertainty, prediction market accuracy, and sensitivity to IPO timing announcements.

Amazon is undervalued at $250 with only 50% gains over 5 years despite strong growth across AWS, advertising, and logistics divisions, plus efficiency gains from robotics and AI investments positioning it well among hyperscalers. Key risks include major insider selling, broader market collapse, and execution on high capital expenditure commitments.

AAOI is expected to announce partnership/qualification with a major hyperscaler (possibly Google) by Thursday after completing a 3-week testing phase mentioned in earnings; the recent $600M ATM program is interpreted as a signal of passed qualification and proof of supply capability.

AAOI may announce a partnership or qualification with a major hyperscaler (possibly Google) following their CEO's mention of completing transceiver tests within 2-3 weeks, supported by a recent $600M ATM program that signals proof of funds. Key risks include uncertainty about which hyperscaler it is, timing of announcement, and potential dilution from the ATM program.

Trader placed a $51k PUT bet on SOXX for October 16th expiration, predicting a market correction due to deteriorating consumer sentiment, weak market breadth, geopolitical uncertainty (Iran peace deal uncertainty), and rising oil prices that will pressure hyperscalers like META and AMAZON. Key risks include the unpredictability of geopolitical events, the possibility of continued gamma rallies despite weak fundamentals, and the potential for institutions to maintain support for equities despite poor breadth.

Amazon presents a buying opportunity on dips due to strong fundamentals in AWS cloud services and e-commerce operations. Key risks include regulatory scrutiny, increased competition from cloud providers, and potential macroeconomic slowdown affecting consumer spending.

Analysis of 2,000+ stock splits over 30 years examining price movements around split announcements and execution dates. Key finding: stock splits create tradeable price movements despite having no fundamental impact on business value, with potential opportunities around announcement and execution windows.