Angel has a website where they show daily sub numbers. This is the data I've been tracking:
|Date|Subscribers|Change|Daily Rate\*|App Rank (ios)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|3/30|2,220,000|—|—||
|6/4|2,360,467|\+140,467|\+2,128/day||
|6/5|2,364,159|\+3,692|||
|6/7|2,383,162|\+19,003|\+9,502/day||
|6/8|2,390,362|\+7,200|||
|6/9|2,386,548|\-3,814|||
|6/11|2,390,629|\+4,081|\+2,041/day||
|6/12|2,394,464|\+3,835|||
|6/14|2,413,902|\+19,438|\+9,719/day||
|6/15|2,417,862|\+3,960|||
|6/16|2,419,048|\+1,186|||
|6/17|2,242,052|\+3,004||\#78|
|6/18|2,247,890|\+5,838||\#82|
|6/19|2,449,943|\+5,115||\#78|
|6/20|2,449,943|\+16,938||\#56|
|6/21|2,469,105|\+19,162||\#41|
|6/22|2,494,288|\+25,183||\#26|
\*Daily Rate accounts for missing days between updates.
Management guided for roughly 11% quarter-over-quarter subscriber growth and about 1 million new subscribers this year. Based on the daily subscriber data I've been tracking, they appear to be running well ahead of that pace.
Q1 ended at about 2.22 million subscribers.
A few weeks ago the company announced they had crossed 2.4 million subscribers.
Today they're sitting around 2.49 million subscribers and will likely cross 2.5 million within the next day or two.
What's interesting is that Angel publishes subscriber counts daily on its website. Most investors don't seem to know this data exists, so they are waiting for quarterly updates while the numbers are available in near real time. https://www.angel.com/guild/impact
Angel seems to be converting subs at the theaters. I didn't go to the movies this weekend, but I'm assuming they are advertising at the theaters because of the explosive growth over the weekend.
If this trend continues, I don't think they finish the year anywhere near the company's original expectations.
Management's framework was roughly 1 million new subscribers this year.
My estimate is closer to 2 million new subscribers this year, which would put them near 4 million subscribers by year end.
The market is still valuing the company based on old growth assumptions while the current subscriber data suggests growth may be accelerating.
Not financial advice. Just sharing the numbers I've been tracking.