EXXON
Or some oil producer idk
So it's all been about time-shifting.
Closing Hormuz doesn't matter for 6 weeks because tankers which got out before you closed it are still at sea.
Then it doesn't matter because you can dip into reserves.
Then the reserves run out <- YOU ARE HERE. Lowest for 40 years
Then Hormuz reopens BUT
All that means is Iran and US won't shell you for using it (in theory...). It's still mined. Mines have to be cleared, ships and insurers have to be satisfied that they been cleared, backlog of ships needs clearing, production and pipeline infrastructure needs fixing
MEANWHILE demand which was being met from reserves needs meeting AND reserves need replenishment
COUNTERARGUMENT
Everyone saying Hey remember that shit we believed about Hormuz and 20% of all oil? Just shows how wrong you can be.
But how wrong was it? It's the right ballpark, the reserves are a decent explanation why there was not an immediate oil shock, now the reserves have run out, and after Russia 2021 and now this nations are saf want them replenished asap.
The other argument is that "empty shelves because tariffs" 2025 was a flop and so will this be. But history doesn't always repeat.
Also also BofA saying Buy Exxon
POSITIONS Long shares of iShares Oil & Gas (SPOG) Long JPM Nat Resources