TL;DR: SATS (EchoStar) owns a massive chunk of SpaceX that is worth more than SATS's entire market cap. Add in a $22B cash injection from AT&T closing next month, $0 debt to the FCC, and a 60%+ short interest on the free float. The setup for a massive candle is staring right at us.
Here is the breakdown of why the math on this stock is completely broken right now:
1. The SpaceX Arbitrage (Free Money)
$SATS is set to receive 261.8 million shares of SpaceX ($SPCX) from a spectrum transfer deal. In the pre-market/Hyperliquid, SPCX is already trading around $170-$180. Do the math: 261.8M shares x $160 (conservative) = \~$41 Billion. Meanwhile, the total market cap of $SATS is sitting around $33-34 Billion. By buying $SATS, you are buying SpaceX shares at a massive discount, and getting the entirety of EchoStar’s actual business and remaining spectrum for absolutely free.
2. The $22.65B AT&T Deal
The FCC already approved SATS selling low/mid-band spectrum to AT&T for $22.65 Billion in pure cash. The deadline for reconsideration has passed, and this deal is expected to close in less than a month (mid-July 2026). Once that cash hits, SATS can pay off its remaining debt and still have roughly $8.5 Billion in net cash left over. What do cash-rich companies with heavily shorted stock do? Share buybacks.
3. The $2.9B FCC Liability is GONE
Until recently, EchoStar owed the FCC $2.9 Billion. The catch? If the FCC's "Auction 113" raised over $2.921B, EchoStar's debt would be wiped out. Well, the auction just surpassed $3.1 Billion. SATS now owes the FCC exactly $0. Their balance sheet is rapidly clearing up.
4. The 60%+ short
This is where it gets spicy. The officially reported short interest is around 32%. However, the founder of the company (Charles Ergen) firmly holds 50.5% of the shares. Those shares are locked up and not available to be lent out. This means the actual short interest on the available free float is well over 60%.
The Catalyst
We have a massive cash injection closing in weeks, an IPO rotation, and shorts trapped in a stock with very little float left to borrow. Once the AT&T deal officially closes and buyback rumors start, the shorts will have to rush for the exit.
Positions:
- Options: Sep 2026 130c
- Shares: 33 shares @ $119
Not financial advice, do your own DD, but the math here is a no-brainer. I'll see you on the god candle.