Current numbers:
Market cap: \~$36B
Short interest: \~25-30% of float
Among the most shorted stocks in the S&P 500
Expected SpaceX ownership: \~262M shares (\~2% of SpaceX)
SpaceX currently around $2.67T and briefly traded near $3T after-hours yesterday.
At a $2.67T valuation:
2% × $2.67T = $53.4B
At a $3T valuation:
2% × $3T = $60B
Meanwhile, the entire market cap of SATS is only \~$36B.
So the market is effectively saying:
$53-60B of SpaceX equity
Hughes
Boost Mobile
Remaining spectrum assets
All other operating assets
Are collectively worth $36B.
Bear case is debt, but they're getting cash from $T this month to cover the debt.
Every increase in SpaceX's valuation widens the gap between SATS' market cap and the value of its expected SpaceX stake.
Current discount is batshit, like ok there's a tax burden and debt but those can't possibly justify a 50% discount.
TL;DR
One of the most shorted stocks in the S&P 500
Expected SpaceX stake worth \~$53-60B
Entire company worth \~$36B
Bears focus on debt
Bulls focus on SpaceX
The more SpaceX goes up, the more difficult the current valuation becomes to justify.
Lots of discussion on X. Nothing on WSB.
I own shares/calls. Not financial advice. Do your own research.