Honestly, this DD requires a lot of critical thinking. If that’s not your jam, please enjoy this cartoon of Alex Karp crushing the competition, then scroll down to the bottom of the DD where you’ll find my plan for the end of my lockup plus a few diamond emojiis, a couple of hand emojiis and a bunch of vacuum optimized transportation device emojiis.
Lots of words below, so here’s the TL;DRs, Table of Contents, a self dox, and position disclosure before my DD.
TL;DR #1: After watching Demo Day twice, I am blown away at how much Palantir’s products have matured in the last 6 years since I left Palantir. I find the new UX far superior to offerings from GOOG, MSFT, and CRM. Apollo is absolutely incredible, and it’s going where no clouds have gone before… from Humvees to nuclear submarines. Lastly, it is clear to me that PLTR has invested heavily in best-of-class administrative tools to improve the speed to deploy Palantir. Bottom line: I fully understand why IBM gave up fighting Palantir and is now selling Palantir Foundry to IBM clients.
PLTR when I left in 2015 versus the Palantir I saw on Demo Day:
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TL;DR #2: IBM just surrendered to PLTR. In the words of POTUS, this is a…
Big.
Fucking.
Deal.
To put it politely, IBM and Palantir don’t have a very good past relationship. So the fact that IBM is now pushing Foundry means one thing: Foundry is so unfuckwithable that IBM was losing numerous contracts to Foundry-wielding competitors and IBM had no choice but to swallow their pride and cut a deal with Papa Karp.
- First they ignore you.
- Then they laugh at you.
- Then they fight you.
- Then they surrender to you and sign a deal to slang Foundry to thousands of clients in 180 countries.
- Then they send your shareholders tendies for decades.
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TL;DR #3: Regardless of how ‘good’ or ‘bad’ the 2020 earnings are tomorrow, I find the news from early 2021 to be an incredibly strong signal pointing to an eventual $250B+ market cap for Palantir – BP renewing their enterprise deal, Rio Tinto and PG&E signing a new enterprise deals, AT&T aggressively hiring for Palantir skills, and 2,500 IBMers now pushing Foundry to clients all over the world, etc. IE the tea leaves I'm reading point to strong growth in 2021 and beyond.
It's also worth mentioning that many of the new commercial clients have some of the most difficult and complex supply chains in the world.
If they’re in, I’m in.
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TL;DR #4: Eventually, institutional traders will comprehend the immense long-term value of Planeteer Planter Palantir and the stock will join the PFAANG club (though I vote that we rename it the FAAPNG club).
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Table of Contents:
- Praise & Constructive Criticism for Demo Day
- Why Palantir is a Diamond Fisted Iron Man Suit
- The True ROI of Palantir
- Muthafuckin’ Clouds in Nuclear Submarines
- Does it Matter that Palantir Needs FDEs at Deployments?
- Should you YOLO on PLTR?
- My Appreciation for the Palantir Team
- Musings on Earnings and Unlocking
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Because there are so many shills, pumpers, and bullshiters on WSB these days, I’ll self dox myself. I’m Jason Payne. I joined Palantir in early 2007, when it was a few dozen geeks with big dreams, and left in 2015 to become the CEO of Ada Diamonds (hence my username).
I joined Reddit to do an official [AMA on laboratory-grown diamonds](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/8pb8d5/i_grow_diamond