Update (12/8/20):
For those who missed it, I've upped this bet to include a tattoo on my ass if I'm wrong. But I won't be wrong.
UPPING THE ANTE: If SPY closes below 360 by next Friday I will donate $100 to the top 10 commentors below. If SPY closes above 375 next Friday I will get JPow's face and "Don't Fight The Fed" tattooed on my ass.
UPDATE (11/30/20):
Stock futures are currently at around +0.80%. I'm down as fuck on my positions as most of you already know...
I stated before I never put more than 10k into short term options plays, which is how I've lasted 20 years in this game.
These are extreme times. I am now putting that rule on hold. If these futures hold up, tomorrow I am dumping another 10k into my SPY puts and VXX calls. I am literally doubling down to a 20k total bet.
This extra 10k will be January/February dated since my December timing appears to be early.
Still conservative strikes: VXX 22c, SPY 350p, TLT 162c
UPDATE: CURRENT POSITIONS (as of 11/20/20)
https://preview.redd.it/wn0f6wuevh061.png?width=1078&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5f63c8e8577acead459cc55c72f2076974755f2
https://preview.redd.it/qiu0oma2j7061.png?width=1626&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aac070daa9c5595cc3e5e3dad2747297e2289c3
Hello again. SVM/??? here with another fuckin banger. LET'S GOOOO!!!!!
Introduction:
The market is going to tank. Let me just give a bit of background so you know why my opinion is better than yours...
I am not a bear. I am not a bull. I go where the market tells me to go, I bet where it tells me to bet. And right now, the indicators are telling me to take a strong bearish position. So that's what I have been doing.
I've been trading more than 20 years. I was trading the great financial crash while most of you were watching fucking Spongebob or whatever the fuck you kids jerked it to. This is not my primary job, but I make a good deal of cash on the side every month, timing the market and swing trading broad market ETFs. I do my research, I know my shit, and I rarely touch your shitty meme stocks. I'm doing you all a favor of once again sharing my insights into this market, so you too can share in my profits and maybe learn a thing or two.
I will lay this out as cleanly as I can, offering multiple premises for my bearish bet and explaining them in detail. I've covered some of this in the past, but wanted to consolidate everything and more in one place. This post will be long. If you want to cry about that rather than thank me for my service, you will go broke soon and deserve it cuz you are a lazy fuck. PRESSING FORWARD!
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Primary Bearish Premises:
Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued (Macro)
Premise 2: SPY is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes (TA)
Premise 3: The Fed CANNOT Print Money You Retards (Facts)
Premise 4: Quantitative Easing is Deflationary (Theory)
Premise 5: Credit Markets are Contracting (Data)
Premise 6: Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks (Data)
Premise 7: Unemployment is Still Sky High (Data)
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Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued
There are plenty of small, detail arguments for a bearish position. Covid cases rising, election uncertainty, stimulus failing, and so on. Plenty of others have made this case, so I won't focus on the small scale issues such as these.
What I want to give you is a larger, macro picture. Because the market is simply overvalued, period. The market has become divorced from the overall economy. I understand tech, and why they have a bullish case for growth in the face of Covid lockdowns... My point here is that you need some REAL WORLD measures to tie "future earnings" down to reality, to prevent irrational euphoria from taking over your mind.
There are plenty of indicators out there showing that stocks are o