Short Tesla. Elon fanboys are going to get financially violated when Musk focuses on his new baby SpaceX and tosses his old baby in the dumpster. Elon will get away with it as usual. It’s going to be a spectacle of financial engineering, unwritten backroom understandings and skirting the grey lines.
The setup is exactly what you have heard a million times: The early entry criterion in the NASDAQ, Russell ETFs and the small 5 to 15% float. On the 15th trading day ETFs will start buying shares of SpaceX into grandma’s retirement, raising the share prise for future insiders who wish to divest pre-Q2 earnings. Another key factor is that Musk owns 20% of Tesla and has friends and family on the Tesla board, he also owns 41% of SpaceX.
When SpaceX has been trading for two weeks, the quiet period is over or so and the price has stablized. Musky and SpaceX (at a 2T or even 3T valuation now) will send an ALL-SHARE acquistion offer to the Tesla board (around 1.24T by then). 1 SPCX == 3 TSLA. Existing Pension Funds and Retirement Funds will complain (they already have and are anticipating a merger) and threaten to sue but Musk can get away with forcing a merger given his control over Tesla along with one of the big instituitional owners, and family in his pockets.
Why wouldn’t Tesla shoot up massively in this scenario and go to 600+? It definitely could given that elon fanboys are regards, but since both SpaceX and Tesla will be public at the time of the merger announcement, it is more likely than NOT to see the price of Tesla drop and the price of SpaceX to rise, as Tesla is the unambiguous loser of the merger. XAI is a capital guzzling machine burdened with datacenter debt and X, while Tesla today at least has positive net income (even though China has eaten their lunch). Critically, though, Tesla would be forced to convert its shares into overinflated SpaceX shares. The new merged SpaceX-Tesla would be worth 3 to 4 trillion, maybe even larger than NVIDIA.
Who gets robbed? The TSLA fanboys and institutional holders of Tesla, mom and pop retirement funds holding TSLA.
Who benefits?
Elon, who gets full control over the two companies. majority ownership. freedom to grift with new gimmicks like combine Tesla with Starlink, use Teslas assets to build moon buggies. starlinks. combine Teslas FSD teams with XAI assets. Make Tesla the only SpaceX vendor. Its SolarCity 4.0! He gets to hide that his cars have stopped selling.
Would Elon lose money given his current wealth is majority Tesla based?
At just the IPO valuation of 1.75T and 41% ownership, elons stake in SpaceX is now 2.7x greater than his stake in Tesla 1.24T at 20% ownership. Likely more given the IPO is oversubscribed. He wont care that Tesla drops by 30% to 50%. Its getting merged into one anyway.
Going to start a small Tesla short tomorrow. Thanks for hearing me out my cat was meowing behind me.