Original post with the position:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/Zbi4Unmh2V
Most people say a pre-IPO SpaceX-Tesla announcement is impossible. These documented steps suggest it may not be:
- They locked the IPO price at exactly $135 nine days early, removing the usual last-minute pricing negotiation and making a surprise announcement far more feasible.
- The June 1 S-1 amendment added language explicitly allowing a massive equity issuance for future transactions.
- Elon holds \~85% voting control through Class B shares, giving him full authority over any deal.
- Tesla reincorporated from Delaware to Texas last year, removing the strict legal hurdles for a conflicted transaction.
- The IPO has only a 3–5% float with up to 30% going to retail — a setup Jim Cramer has publicly warned could create extreme meme-stock volatility.
- The S-1 claims a $22.7 trillion enterprise AI TAM, but capturing any meaningful share against entrenched hyperscalers is widely viewed as unrealistic — this has been the biggest pushback.
- A Tesla share-swap would bring \~3.5 billion additional shares into play, allowing arbitrageurs to keep the two stocks trading in line and acting as a powerful shock absorber on volatility.
- SpaceX is hosting an unprecedented 1,500-person retail investor event in Austin the night before pricing — the kind of high-energy, theatrical gathering Elon has previously reserved for Tesla shareholders.
This remains a low-probability scenario — but one that deserves serious consideration given the unusual steps taken.