bare with me, this is the first time i am writing something like this. i am about to do something that my wife and her boyfriend would call irresponsible. however, what they don't know is that i have just strapped my portfolio onto a falcon 9, t-minus 4 days to liftoff. how you may ask? i am taking 400 call contracts across the space sector going into the spacex hype window.
https://preview.redd.it/ak91vd3ca56h1.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=bee1be524818e0683d98dfdc405cf1df52282e01
- asts: 10,000 shares x $125 = $1,250,000
- tsla: 10,000 shares x $475 = $4,750,000
- lunr: 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000
- rklb: 10,000 shares x $150 = $1,500,000
that is 40,000 shares of controlled exposure or $7.9 million of total controlled strike exposure. i am no rocket scientist, no pun intended, but that's a lot of money.
my thesis:
let me preface something, this is not a spacex launch means every space stock should be worth more forever thesis...that would be regarded. this is a short term attention, sympathy, gamma, and headline momentum thesis.
the market does not need a clean fundamental connection for 4 trading days, it needs:
- a major space headline
- retail attention
- call buying
- algos chasing sector momentum
- wsb hyping space sector
- hedge funds being dragged in
since spacex is currently private, most people cannot gamble directly on the rocket daddy. that means us public traders need to look for the closest positions we can take, aka:
asts = satellites to phones & actual spacex launch connection
rklb = rockets
lunr = moon missions & nasa contracts
tsla = elon liquidity magnet & spacex emotional derivative
this is not value investing. this is trying to be ahead of the moment where retail remembers space exists.
why 6.12:
you may be asking yourself, why on the day of the launch? this is the week where spacex is already sitting in the news cycle. the market is watching spacex ipo demand and valuation. meaning, space becomes the theme of the week. not for the day. not when the business matures. this week. we don't care about discounted cash flow models, we care about:
- volume
- iv expansion
- momentum
- headline flow
- retail chasing
- hedges
current strike distances, based on current prices:
yes, those are far otm. yes, theta is holding a baseball bat. yes, iv crush is waiting outside my window. however, this isn't a retirement account we are playing here...it is a launch week! this is a beautiful opportunity! i have already account for the what ifs, and the point is not that every single one goes itm. the point is that one or two can violently reprice if the sector catches a bid and options flow stacks fast enough.
asts, the actual direct catalyst:
asts is the cleanest spacex sympathy play here, this is not just space vibes. asts has bluebird satellites tied to spacex falcon 9 launch plans. that matters because the market can connect the dots without needing an hour long video.
- spacex rocket launches asts satellites
- asts stock is already a space/telecom hype machine
- retail sees satellite launch
- calls get bid
- stock runs
asts is also the type of name that can move stupid when people start pricing future network in space instead of company with losses today. if launch hype, space ipo hype, and call flow all hit at once, this is exactly the kind of ticker that can stop trading like a company and start trading like a fever dream.
tsla, the elon liquidity magnet:
let's get one thing very clear, tesla is not spacex. now that we have that out of the way, for you regards who didn't know, they both have some things in common. elon. the market does not treat elon names like normal assets. for example, tsla is the liquid elon proxy. so, when spacex dominates headlines, a chunk of retail does not think:
“hmm, how do i properly value private aerospace cash flows?”
they think:
“elon rocket good, tsla call.”
get this, it's not just vibes anymore. spacex is literally a tesla c