After losing enough money to qualify as a charitable organization, I decided to reassess my investment strategy.
I looked around my office.
The monitor was broken.
The keyboard was broken.
My confidence was broken.
But the Canon printer was still working.
So I figured somebody at Canon clearly knows how to build something that survives contact with me.
That’s more due diligence than I’ve done on most of my positions.
Now I’m long.
Before you call me a boomer, hear me out.
Canon trades at roughly:
\~10x earnings
\~6x EV/EBITDA
\- Pays dividends
\- Buys back stock
\- Generates actual free cash flow
Which immediately made me suspicious because none of my successful investments have ever had any of those characteristics.
The funny part is Canon isn’t even just cameras and printers anymore.
They also have:
\- Medical imaging
\- Industrial equipment
\- Semiconductor lithography
Am I saying it’s the next ASML?
Absolutely not.
I’ve been wrong too many times to make claims that bold.
I’m saying I accidentally found a semiconductor company while staring at office equipment.
Bear case:
\- Printing is declining
\- Growth is slow
\- Margins are under pressure
\- Japanese stocks can stay cheap forever
\- I own it
Bull case:
\- Strong cash flow
\- Cheap valuation
\- Buybacks
\- Dividend
\- Nobody cares
Position: Long Canon.
Expected outcome: value trap.
Actual outcome: probably still better than whatever AI stock I would’ve bought instead.
P.S. Secret Bull Case
Canon operates Earth-imaging satellites.
SpaceX sends things into space.
Canon takes pictures of them.
By WSB standards, Canon is basically a pre-IPO SpaceX play.