Hey, I'm recklessly exposed to oil-prices, don't listen to anything I say, if you feel bullish after reading, take a short position, that is financial advice.
TLDR: I'm long a lot of traditional energy, I prioritize torque and immediate capital returns via buybacks.
My portfolio is first and foremost an aggressive, highly concentrated bet on a prolonged global shortage of oil. Everything else in my book is completely ancillary. I’m focused entirely on physical constraints and the structural undersupply of global energy. Tangible asset scarcity is key, and broken global logistics dictate terms. The market appears, for whatever reason, to be blind to just how long the world will remain supply-constrained on oil and how disciplined the industry's management teams have become. Instead of blowing capital on expensive, low-return capacity expansion in the face of any price increases, these companies are primarily focused on aggressively buying back their own stock and funneling cash straight to shareholders. That gives me incredible equity leverage in a world of completely inelastic global demand.
To extract maximum torque out of these structural plays, I’m running a leveraged setup. My margin balance currently sits at a 9.00% weight of my overall capital. I'm paying a 3.82% interest rate on this borrowed money.
To capture the pure upstream side of this thesis, I have an outsized core allocation towards US Oil and Gas holdings (35.09% total weight). These assets serve as a reliable source of energy security, defined by high free cash flow yields and the operational flexibility to quickly scale production into higher oil prices. SM Energy leads this group at a 6.63% weight, with 478 shares and an average cost of 17.96, using lateral drilling efficiencies in the Permian and South Texas to fund its capital return model. Murphy Oil follows at a 6.33% weight, with 386 shares and an average cost of 30.55, balancing highly scalable onshore acreage with steady, cash-generative deepwater assets in the Gulf of Mexico. Crescent Energy holds a 6.00% weight, with 1,200 shares and an average cost of 8.11, focusing entirely on mature, low-decline basins to strip away exploration risk and maximize the cash available for buybacks. Chord Energy sits at a 5.73% weight, with 100 shares and an average cost of 85.13, using its dominant, inventory-rich position in the Williston Basin to aggressively retire shares. Matador is a 5.43% weight, with 236 shares and an average cost of 39.96, capitalizing on its nimble, top-tier Permian operations to ramp up quickly during pricing spikes. Comstock Resources rounds out the domestic side at a 4.97% weight, with 881 shares and an average cost of 18.100, functioning explicitly as a highly levered call option on natural gas prices whenever the domestic market tightens.
Supplementing my US O&G basket, my International Oil and Gas allocation (12.72% total weight) offers deeply discounted access to global Brent and LNG pricing. By underwriting the geopolitical risks of complex jurisdictions, these assets give me far longer reserve lives than domestic majors for a fraction of the cost. Kosmos Energy makes up 6.77% of the portfolio, with 5,510 shares and an average cost of 1.900, giving me world-class deepwater assets at a deep valuation discount. GeoPark Limited is a 5.95% weight, with 1,320 shares and an average cost of 5.96, pairing a low-cost production profile in Latin American basins with reliable reserve replacement to extract massive cash flows from the market's risk aversion.
Supporting the physical extraction of O&G is the services side, with Oilfield Services (20.26% total weight). This sector is driven by severe deepwater drilling rig scarcity and a total lack of newbuildings. This supply deficit is rapidly tightening the market and pushing dayrates through the roof, a trend further accelerated by major industry consolidation like the Valaris and Transocean merger. Valaris is my largest single stock posi