Edit post-Q1 call: It could, in fact, go tits up another quarter in a row. Now I get to see if my June calls can resurrect themselves. Asset carveout still plain as day, but timeline up in the air. Guh.
TLDR; US battery company showing signs of life, Q1 earnings play for Monday, May 11 after hours. Clarksville, TN factory assets moving to new subsidiaries, carve out for potential joint venture with major OEM. Stock is at $2, but check out Oct 2025 if you want to see where this is going ($5+).
https://preview.redd.it/rgnt1hnwo50h1.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d3710d382ed45a68ca541bb5000a8c6f6694755
I threw my YOLO out here three weeks ago, and not much has changed about the play. Timeline has firmed up and my June calls are ready.
$MVST still seems primed for take off. Q1 earnings release this Monday after hours. Got hammered by the Q4 revenue miss and massive inventory impairment in their report from March. Expectations are so low they might as well be priced for bankruptcy.
My DD is about the US subsidiary activity that's way too suspicious given that Oshkosh JV theory that was probably someone's AI fever dream, but seems to have enough hints of truth in it I decided to swing for the fences. Here's what I found in the timeline. I know, smells like AI slop but I've maybe just got a touch of the tism and like linking to hard evidence, yeah? You decide if you believe it or not.
March 16: They report Q4, way under expected revenue, and basically throw the kitchen sink at their 10-K. Their new CAO cleaned the books hard. But they had a record quarter in US revenue of $21.5M - matching import logs that showed lots of MV-C packs arriving in Clarksville, TN. That's where they stash them until delivery to Oshkosh/McNeilus in Murfreesboro, TN. Oshkosh bought 6 months' worth of packs for the Volterra ZSL refuse trucks, helping bridge Microvast's US cash situation, which is the sole reason for their 'going concern'. Check out this service manual for the Volterra ZSL if you want to see the hard evidence of Microvast battery packs.
Also in the 10-K: CEO Yang Wu has a 10b5-1 plan adopted from Dec 2025 (when the stock was at $3). It opened on April 1, 2026 and runs until March 2027. No shares have been sold as of today, May 9.
Same guy has a convertible loan to the company from back when it traded below $0.50 in 2024, the loan matures May 28 (as in 19 days from now). He already has \~85M shares, the loan converts to another \~53M. His 10b5-1 is to sell up to 10M. He's not selling at $2, he's waiting for the big payout that's coming.
Also March 16: Oshkosh files an 8-K regarding their revised credit facility, they've got about $1.6B in available credit now. Timing is suspicious but not proof. It's just the sort of thing you would do if you were waiting to see your M&A target file their 10-K and deflate their value to a reasonable level.
March 30: Microvast surrenders their air permit at their Clarksville factory, the one that never got finished back in 2023. They aren't planning to produce NMC cells there any more. Just modules/packs from NMC cells produced in China, plus eventually LFP cells/packs - which don't need the toxi