I am looking for bulls to fuel my bias, I am also looking for bears to challenge my thesis.
Background:
I have had 0 income this year. I sold all of my BTC and ETH that I have been holding since 2021. Made a good amount of money, Could have made 70% more if I sold last year. However since I made less then 65k I wont have any taxes to pay since I held for years and sold with no job/no income.
Now regarding my play and thesis.
Bullish on SPCE, this should keep running short term over 11 per share due to all the lovely degens and hype. SPCE halted twice today. I opened a call, break even 8.10.
(first time buying a contract btw), Used 1.5% of my available funds. The rest will go to SPACEX IPO.
Guessing SPCE will dump a day or two before June12th (spacex ipo). So I will probably sell. I could also see it still going up on the 12th. Fueled buy sector hype along with the Blue Origin boom boom fail. Blue Origins boom boom should also help with SPACEX ipo PUMP
Now the second part
SPACEX IPO June 12th
I spam refresh robinhood and buy 30kusd of SPACEX at launch
Day 1 +30% green candle
Day 2-4 VOLATILITY
Day 5 Russell1000 inclusion - MEGA GREEN CANDLE
Day 6-14 VOLATILITY
Day 15 NASDAQ100 inclusion - MEGA GREEN CANDLE
End of Day 15 +100% ipo price
Meanwhile insiders are sitting on the sidelines unable to dump until earnings in September. Other than a SPACEX rocket blowing up before September, where would more sell pressure than buy pressure come from? Pressure will start from insiders in Sept, then 3 months later SPACEX gets inclusion in the S&P 500. So I could see the price still being held up and then the bags get dumped on 401k S&P holders.
I plan sell before insiders (September) and buy my ETH and BTC back as BTC bottoms near low to mid 50s. Along with keeping some cash, to wrap up this play. Also I feel like there is tons of hype for spacex and crypto sucks right now so anyone who missed AI gains and likes crypto will probably ape SPACEX. Its giving me crypto token launch vibes.
Sooooooo...
WHERES THE RISK BEFORE SEPTEMBER? PLZ BRING ME DOWN FROM THE STRATOSPHERE OR PUMP MY BIAS 😄
SPCE and SPACEX to the MOOOOON