Everyone is talking about the meme.
Get ready for the HOPIUM Express.
I've sat through every earnings call for four years because I wanted a future where regards can go to space.
I'm interested in the possibility that, for the first time in years, there might actually be a business underneath the meme.
The current discussion around Virgin Galactic is almost entirely about SpaceX, Elon, ticker confusion, and whether retail traders pile into anything space-related.
For years, the market has priced Virgin Galactic like it was going to fail.
- Flights paused
- Revenue collapsed
- The stock got absolutely annihilated.
That wasn't irrational but SPCE today isn't the same SPCE of 2021.
- Two Delta-Class spacecraft in development with ground testing underway
- Flight testing is still targeted for Q3 2026
- Commercial service is still targeted for Q4 THIS YEAR!!!
- Operating costs have fallen year-over-year
The entire purpose of the last 4 years has been building spacecraft that can fly more frequently, be maintained more efficiently, and eventually support a scalable operation.
If Delta enters service and performs as expected, the conversation changes from:
Can Virgin Galactic survive?
to
“How big can Virgin Galactic become?”
The vision has never been one spaceship flying tourists forever. The vision is multiple ships operating from multiple spaceports. Starting in America but they've been working with Italian government for years on a second.
If the company eventually operates multiple ships across multiple locations, the economics become dramatically different from what investors see today. That’s the optionality I think the market struggles to value.
Don't get me wrong their are still risks
Maybe none of that happens, maybe Delta is delayed, maybe demand disappoints.
But when I read discussions about SPCE, the company is often treated as though failure is already guaranteed. That’s the part I disagree with.
Not financial advice. I'm possibly the most regards one here 😆