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The financials on PRGS are ridiculous. Turnaround of the year?

BULLISH by u/TheHispanicHero | May 23, 2026 | 1↑ 0 comments | 29 views | VIEW ON REDDIT
$PRGS
$PRGS PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION TECHNOLOGY EQUITY SIMULATION
$29.96
+1.12 (+3.88%)
LAST PRICE · 15 MIN DELAY
DAY CHG +3.88%
5D CHG -4.53%
30D CHG +3.10%
AI SUMMARY — PRGS exhibits classic deep-value characteristics: 4.9x forward P/E with 41% operating margins, $263-275M annual FCF, 100% net customer retention, and a $1B revenue milestone catalyst. Key risks include sentiment disconnect from $65→$29.78 drop, execution risk on AI upsell strategy, and macro sensitivity despite strong fundamentals.
TICKERPRGS USERu/TheHispanicHero
RATING BULLISH ENTRY $29.78
POSITION 335 sh SYN BOOK VAL $9976.30
CURRENT $29.96 P&L % +0.60%
CURR VAL $10036.60 P&L $ +60.30

Price: \~$29.78 (Dropped from 52-week high of $65; complete sentiment disconnect)

Valuation: 15.2x Trailing P/E — a dirt-cheap \~4.9x Forward P/E against non-GAAP guidance.

Financials: $138M cash, a massive 41% operating margin, generating $263M - $275M in annual FCF.

Moat: 100% Net Customer retention Rate. Software is buried deep in corporate infrastructure — ripping it out means millions in costs and operational suicide.

Catalyst: Hitting a historic $1 Billion annual revenue goal this year. Upselling their captive user base with newly launched enterprise AI/Agentic tools.

CEO Alignment: Pay is heavily tied to Performance Share Units (PSUs). If the stock underperforms the index over rolling 3-year windows, the CEO gets zeroed out.

Targets: Wall Street consensus is $50.83 (\~70% upside), with bulls sitting at $65 - $83.

WHAT AM I MISSING?