Just how I predicted on my last post meta dip today due to capex concerns and dilution. Which I don’t understand, Zuck already has a massive control over the company but now is diluting it with class C so they can fund their CAPEX. This is actually good, meta posted a negative FCF quarter yesterday which triggered a dip in which we are taking advantage of. But why I say issuing class C is good is because meta will not have to go to their cash reserves or issue more debt to fund their capex. So FCF for Q4 will be negative on the worst case scenario. These shares Is expected to trade on January 19.
My main thesis again.
Q4 META will crush earnings again big time. But this time we will have a quantified metrics on muse and their usefulness during (holiday shopping). I would like to mention that muse is metas talking point they cannot afford to not show meaningful quantify metrics for muse. Their user base along side order numbers need to increase for a meaningful bull catalyst on Q4. If delivered right this can overshadow negative FCF. On Q3 meta quantified their muse numbers 10million users, 25% daily, and 25% shopping via agent at >200 orders. Meta is not scared to quantified their numbers but these numbers have to do better next Q4 which I see is possible again holiday shopping. If they can increase daily users and order numbers these can overshadow any negative bear talking point. (For just a quarter at least). My hunch is they do deliver and meta jumps to $800 even if it’s for a couple of trading days. I would like to mention muse is only available in the US and Canada. If they can’t deliver this just means defeat for the Zuck because worldwide these two markets are just what really matter. (Yes Europe nobody cares about you, you blue hair liberal weirdo)
Side events that help but aren’t necessary.
1)Muse enterprise metrics.
2)A moderate 2027 Capex. This one ticker is 80% checked. When it comes to CAPEX meta is very conservative with their numbers leaving room for increases.
3)I don’t have a third so fuck off.
Forgot to mention. I have another 60k reserve for next week. I’m expecting a red week for the sector as a result of Amazon/Google. I don’t have anything bad to say about but it’s just that wall street is pricing their earnings above and beyond perfection.
Also my plan. Sell half my contracts heading into earnings to catch that earnings catalyst. And the other half after earnings. If it shits itself no worries that’s why I bought at an expiration of may. Sell at a loss better than 100% loss am I right ?!