I would like to start off by saying that meta is going nowhere. But short term this meta will stay below 1k not until they get a handle of their CAPEX spending which I believe would be mid 2028.
Now the good stuff. Tomorrow is earnings. First things I’m looking for is Capex spending, see if they increase their high end or lower end. Second muse quantification, and lastly ads and more importantly Q4 predictions/comments. If everything goes like how I think it’s going to play out (meta stock will go back to 680-660) due to capex increases. And lack of muse monetization (still too short of a time frame to show qualified data proving its effectiveness. Note meta can deliver on revenue but if it can’t control their capex spending this will overshadow all the positive comments for Q4. Which is why I’m taking advantage of this. Buy the dip and lock in cheap calls.
If this goes how I think it’ll go, I’m going balls in deep for Q4. Why ? Holiday shopping. If meta can provide evidence people are using muse how it’s intended (as your fucking ai assistant doing shopping/booking trips/ and whatnot) this will trigger a short bull run. Meta running back to 780 or finally reaching 800 for maybe 1 or 2 days before stabilizing back to 740-700. Due to of course CAPEX spending.
My whole thesis relies on Muse delivering on what it’s meant for. I’m actually glad Zuck released Muse before Q3 because it leaves the holiday shopping season as a test subject, whether or not there’s fucking demand for an ai assistant.
Other catalyst for my thesis that are a plus but not a must are announcing enterprise customers. Yes they have an enterprise division but I couldn’t find no public customers. Not to mention they release a fucking announcement that they released an enterprise platform while poaching MONGODB same day.
Exciting part calls. My plan is to buy ITM may calls. Yes may even though I’m planning on selling on Q4, this leaves me room for error if meta decides to shit itself. At least I lose 50% not 100% am I right ? I’ll post positions on Thursday if my thesis in this post is correct.