Kazakhstan in Central Asia is very rich in underground resources: oil, gold, copper, uranium, rare earths and much more. Country is moving in the right direction on reforms and private business, and I’m bullish on it long term.
So today it’s not about KASPI. Today I want to discuss AltynGold. It mines gold (plus a little silver) at its Sekisovskoye mine, and its second project next door has gold and has copper. The Assaubayev family owns about 65% of the shares and runs the board.
The stock has dipped a lot this year, but on the numbers it looks very cheap:
- Share price: \~918p (15 Oct); market cap \~£251m / \~$336m
- Production: 53,852oz gold in 2025; 2026 predicted production 52–55000 oz
- All-in cost per ounce (AISC): was $1,530 in 2025, sincde H1 2026 it's $1,995 now (+30%, mainly new mining tax, depreciation, wages, stronger currency)
- 2025 net profit per ounce sold: \~$1,230 (average realised price \~$3,474/oz)
- H1 2026 realised gold price: $4,615/oz (spot now \~$4,100–4,150)
- TTM P/E: \~4.3
- Forward P/E: \~3.7
- EV/EBITDA: 2.8x
- Net debt: $19.3m
- EV: \~$356m
- LTM EBITDA: $125.9m
- TTM revenue / net income: $220.6m / $77.8m
- Physical assets at book value (30.06.26):
- Plant and equipment: $41.6m
- Land and buildings (owned): $31.4m
- Operating mine: $26.1m
- Assets under construction: $7.4m
- Teren-Sai exploration project (production licence in progress): $21.6m
- Total: $128.1m
Hidden value in inventory (smaller than people think): AltynGold carried $45.1m of inventory at 30 June 2026, but only about $12m of that is actual gold product: doré plus gold still in the plant. The rest is ore stockpiles ($24.5m) and fuel, reagents and spares ($8.6m). Under IFRS, inventory is booked at cost, not market price. My estimate is that the $12m of gold product is about 5,000–7,500oz, worth roughly $22–31m at \~$4,150 gold. That’s maybe $10–20m of pre-tax margin not yet in the P&L. It shows up in profit when they sell. It is a nice cash-flow tailwind for 2026.
- New crushing and milling equipment ordered to lift the plants throughput +20%.
- Studying an expansion to 2–2.5Mtpa, targeting 100koz+ a year in the medium term. No investment decision or cost yet; an update is due by end-2026.
- Teren-Sai (next door): the 2019 report showed 1.48Moz of resources (0.80Moz proved + 0.65Moz probable reserves). Plot 5 is gold that can go through the existing plant; plots 2 and 4 are gold plus copper. They’re applying for a production licence, with an update expected in Q4 2026, and the company says development needs extra funding.
- At \~$4,150 gold the estimate is the mine will throws off around $90m a year of after-tax cash after sustaining capex vs a $356m EV.
- Debt is almost gone.
- The board says it’s reviewing a dividend policy.
- At today’s price the market is basically paying for 6 years of current production and nothing for expansion or Teren-Sai
No tech disruption risk here but no moat either - it’s a pure price-taker so profits move with gold.
It’s 10% of my portfolio. Tempted to add, the next few months should bring the Q3 report, Teren-Sai licence news and the expansion decision. What do you guys think?
Not financial advice. I hold shares.