Hello Everyone, this is my first post, this is not to be taken for financial advice.
Just a little information on me, I have 0 financial acumen and am mostly a mentally retarded gambler. I will most likely be unsuccessful in my mission but I will post my trade ideas and thesis here so that you can be entertained by my stupidity.
Trade #1 $RARE Long Shares
Price Target: $17.90
Entry #1: $14.50, will keep buying this week as biotech sector is under pressure $XBI, I hope I can pick it up sub 14.50 to 13 even.
Thesis: $RARE sold off to $14 on Angleman trial failure to a 1.43B market cap. Since then the following has occurred, Sale of 2 PRVs (one for 203M and another one for 210M). $RARE is expected to receive roughly $371 million net from the two PRV sales after the $42 million NIH payment on the $210 million voucher.
$RARE also had FDA approval on Fayuvi , Fayuvi targets \~3,000–5,000 patients in accessible markets at a $3.95M list price, with analyst peak sales estimates of roughly $200–$325M lets meet in the middle and say $275M.
So since the crash to $14 RARE has approx $371M expected from the two voucher sales and lets say $275M from Fayuvi market opportunities, (Total 646M). If we take a 1.43B market cap, thats about 45% of the market cap value of the stock at $14.50, the stock should be worth approx $21 on the value add from this news alone.
Looking at technicals there is clear resistance at $18, $17.90 should be a conservative target.
Bonus points the stock is majority institutionally owned with roughly 22% short interest, this could put pressure on the stock itself if it starts pushing upwards.