I went through NIO's HKEX filings so you don't have to. 10 exhibits, every number tagged. Here's the damage:
74.6% of the "cash pile" is pledged as collateral or restricted. Of RMB 45.9B headline cash, only RMB 11.66B is actually free. The rest secures notes payable and guarantees.
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Payables (RMB 60.4B) are bigger than the entire cash pile (RMB 56.7B). Strip out supplier credit and 2H25 free cash flow flips from +RMB 10.82B to -RMB 7.21B. Suppliers are the bank.
19.6% of revenue comes from related parties. NIO sold RMB 16.0B of batteries to its own affiliate Weineng, which still owes NIO RMB 15.98B — 99.8% of a full year's sales to it. That's not a customer, that's a storage unit.
Q2's "profit" was +RMB 26.1M non-GAAP. GAAP: -RMB 528M. Loss to common shareholders: -RMB 721.6M. The profit was a press release.
RMB 132.2B of claims stand ahead of RMB 4.06B of equity — 3% of the balance sheet for ADS holders. Convert holders can put $575M Oct '27 and $575M Oct '28.
Deliveries went from +98.3% (Q1) to +7.7% (September). ONVO -26.4% in Q3. The 40-50% growth target needs 52,000+/month in Q4. Record month: 48,135.
50,000-path Monte Carlo says fair value is $2.95 (-17.6%). Bear $1.94 / Base $3.32 / Bull $4.98. The current price needs 3.1%-6.5% steady EBIT margins. Best quarter ever: 2.3%.
Kill criteria — what proves me wrong: Q3 GAAP profit to common above zero. Vehicle margin ≥19% in Q3 and Q4. Q4 deliveries ≥156,138. Unrestricted cash ≥50% of the pile at year-end. Related-party receivables below RMB 10B. No new parent equity through 2027.
No position in NIO. Not financial advice. If a number's wrong, show me and I'll correct it.