TL;DR: Trump Media owes $1B to convertible noteholders who can demand cash at par on Nov 30, 2026. Converting is worth about 25 cents on the dollar, so they'll take the cash. DJT has about $775M in non-BTC liquidity. The gap gets filled by selling BTC, printing shares, or cutting a dilutive deal. I'm betting on dilution, so more than likely ole Donnie will find a way to executive order his way out of this mess..
POSITION: 10x DJT 1/15/27 $8P @ $0.99
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THE BUSINESS IS A ROUNDING ERROR
\- Q2 2026 revenue: $1.7M. Net loss: $238M.
\- Most of that loss is non-cash BTC markdowns. The company is basically a Bitcoin treasury with a social app attached.
\- \~278M shares x \~$8 = \~$2.2B market cap vs \~$893M net financial assets (June 30). You're paying \~2.5x for a pile of cash and BTC plus vibes.
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THE CATALYST: NOV 30 PUT DATE
From the May 2025 8-K:
\- $1B of 0.00% convertible senior secured notes, due May 2028
\- Holders can force a repurchase at 100% of principal on Nov 30, 2026
\- Conversion price: $34.72 (28.8 shares per $1,000)
At \~$8, converting = 28.8 x $8 = \~$230 per $1,000 note. The put pays $1,000 cash. Not a hard choice. The 10-Q already classifies the notes as a current liability.
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THEY CAN'T COVER IT WITH CASH ALONE
Liquidity as of June 30:
\- Cash: $215M
\- Short-term investments: $209M
\- Equity securities (after $160M sold in July to buy BTC): \~$320M
\- Restricted cash: $31M
\- Non-BTC total: \~$775M
That's \~$225M\+ short. Their options:
- Sell BTC. Clean, but shrinks the treasury. Part of it is pledged (4,261 BTC to the notes, 2,077 BTC to an options counterparty that can rehypothecate it).
- Raise equity. At \~$8, $500M = \~62M new shares = \~22% dilution.
- Exchange or extend the notes. Holders will want a sweetener (lower conversion price = future dilution).
Options 2 and 3 are what I'm playing for, so again.....Mr Prez will find a way to ease crypto to make it yolo while I'm in this tiny position.
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WHY JAN 15 $8P
\- Most liquid contract on the chain: OI 5.7k, \~$0.04 spread
\- ATM with DJT \~$8, so it moves on any drop
\- \~6 weeks of runway after Nov 30 in case the funding news or 8-K lands late
\- Break-even \~$7