Position: USO 11/6/26 puts at $125
As more and more retail traders join all markets globally, I find that this market isn’t immune to doomerism. There have been so many headlines about oil supplies running out here and there because of the war, and about trumps antics in antagonizing Iran, and oil is higher than ever.
Have people forgotten that, despite the very real consequences, this war is completely fake? In that Trump can literally end the war at any time. When he has ended the war in the past, USO literally dropped 30% from 140-150 to 100… Because at the end of the day, only a tiny fraction of oil infrastructure is permanently damaged. Substantial, but absolutely recoverable. Even Iran says the vast majority of its facilities are recoverable as soon as there is peace.
And what better time to end the war and declare “victory” than right before midterms? Timing like this is not absurd at all for this administration especially after the months of juggling the war between market sessions. Sure, he’d be ending the war he started but it’s better than nothing for an election that is looking pretty dangerous for Republicans.
And options expiring before, during, and after the midterms are priced the exact same with the exact same IV of 45-50%. They are exceedingly cheap for what they are. If trump announces peace and even half of the expected “peace deal” dip happens, I’ll expect to earn 5-10x my investment.