OKLO is around $38, about $17 of that is cash, and they build new nuclear reactors. Then this morning Google goes and signs a 20 year deal with Constellation for 890 MW of nuclear. Thing is, it's not a new plant. Constellation is putting $4.3B+ into upgrading 11 reactors they already run to get more output from them, and the first of that power doesn't show up until 2028. By my math that's something like $4.8M per MW, for upgrades. Amazon did basically the same deal last week for 190 MW. PJM (the grid operator out there) said after its last capacity auction that it's short 6,831 MW, so Google and Amazon together just covered about 16% of it. OKLO isn't in either deal, I want to be clear on that. But if big tech is signing 20 year contracts at those prices for upgrades on old plants, and there's still 5,700+ MW missing, somebody has to build new ones.
OKLO's reactor is called Aurora. Sodium cooled fast reactor, 15 to 75 MW each, and they own and run the plants themselves and sell the power. The Ohio site in Pike County is planned for 1.2 GW, so around 16 of the big ones, and that alone is more than what Google and Amazon just bought put together. Same grid region too. Meta already signed a prepayment agreement on it and Centrus has a letter of intent to supply fuel for up to five units starting in 2029. Switch has a 12 GW agreement with them on top of that. People always say OKLO has never built anything. That was true until August 5, when their isotope reactor in Texas went critical, under a year after they broke ground. They did it through the DOE pilot program and not the NRC, and it took about ten weeks to get from the preliminary safety analysis to startup. The Idaho power plant is going the same DOE route. Its preliminary safety analysis got approved in June, the fuel fab is supposed to come online in 2027, and the plant in 2028. Same year Google gets its first upgraded megawatts.
The stock is down about 80% from the high last October. At $38 the market cap is around $7.3B. They had $3.0B in cash and treasuries at the end of June and raised another $320M or so after that, so roughly $3.3B. Back that out and you're paying about $4B, call it $21 a share, for the actual business. They guided to $120-150M of operating cash burn and $400-500M of capex this year, and they made $23M last quarter on interest alone, so I'm not worried about them paying for Idaho. They do have a new $1B ATM sitting there and we'll see in the Q3 report in November if they touched it. Short interest is about 20% of the float. Analysts are anywhere from $41 (UBS) to $100 (Canaccord). Before today you could argue nobody would really pay up for this stuff. That got a lot harder to say this morning, and the stock is still $38. Not financial advice.