Everyone still thinks this is that 2021 meme stock. They just posted 44% revenue growth YoY, $308M in Q1 revenue, beat estimates, bought back $100M of their own stock in a single quarter, and guided for $1.4B this year with a 35% CAGR over the next 3 years. The insiders are buying. The numbers are accelerating. they also just applied for a national bank charter which would completely restructure their cost base. The market is genuinely asleep.
The actual thesis is simple: FICO scores are 70-year-old technology and Upstart’s AI approves 44% more borrowers at the same default rates — banks are literally turning away good customers because they’re using a model older than the microwave. That gap gets arbitraged eventually, and UPST is the one doing it. Stock trades at 5x forward revenue when it used to trade at 10x+ when it was a worse business. The risk/reward is stupid.