NUAI (New Era Energy & Digital) is building a data center campus in Ector County, Texas, and is working toward a hyperscaler lease. The shorts are betting it never gets signed. They've been adding hard into it.
The setup (as of Sep 29):
- Short interest: 30.07M shares, the highest level on the 2-month chart
- Short float: 42.95%, up from about 33% just two weeks ago
- Price: $6.79
- IV: \~116% vs. 30-day historical vol of \~135%
- IV rank 7.97%, IV percentile 1.30%. The market is pricing less movement than the stock is actually delivering.
So nearly half the float is sold short, and options are near their cheapest levels of the past year, right before the period where we think the news flow gets heavy.
Catalysts we're watching:
- Letter of credit by Oct 9
- Non-binding tenant LOI in the next \~2 weeks
- Macquarie funding
- Final lease agreement in the next \~45 days
If even a couple of these land, the question becomes who's left to cover 30M shares.
Bear case (read this before you YOLO):
The Macquarie loan has an Oct 8 covenant tied to lease execution and drawdown. If the timeline slips, that's a real problem, and the shorts know it. That's exactly why short interest is this high. Timelines on deals like this move all the time. The stock could just as easily trade toward the low end of its implied range. None of the catalysts are guaranteed.
Positions: 150x CALL 5.5 EXP 11-20; 5,000x shares; 10,000x NUAI Warrant 2024 EXP 6.12.29
Not financial advice. Do your own DD. Check the filings yourself.