Position: \~41,000 shares, \~$2.20 average.
I originally put about $90k into IOVA. Position is now approaching $500k.
I’ve posted DD on Iovance before several months ago, but the thesis has changed considerably since then.
For years, IOVA was basically a bet that TIL therapy works and eventually management figures out how to commercialize it.
Well, commercialization is finally happening.
Today Iovance raised 2026 revenue guidance from $350–370M → $410–420M. That’s a 15% increase at the midpoint, and even the bottom of the new range is $40M above the old high. Management specifically cited increasing patient demand and manufacturing visibility into Q3/Q4.
That’s after Q2 revenue hit $99.3M, +66% YoY and +39% QoQ, while gross margin improved to 56%.
Why I think this is still early
Amtagvi is currently approved in previously treated advanced melanoma. But melanoma isn’t what makes the long-term thesis interesting.
Iovance is trying to expand TIL into:
1L melanoma — lifileucel + Keytruda —> Catalyst due in a couple months
NSCLC — potentially the biggest near-term expansion - Catalyst due in a couple months
Endometrial cancer
Soft-tissue sarcoma
Next-generation engineered TIL including IOV-4001 and IOV-5001
NSCLC is particularly important to me. If TIL demonstrates convincing efficacy and eventually gets approved in lung cancer, I don’t think the market will continue valuing Iovance simply as an Amtagvi/melanoma company. It’s literally 10X the market of 2L melanoma
And that’s ultimately my thesis:
Melanoma proves TIL can work commercially. The other solid tumors determine how big Iovance can become. This is a platform play, think Keytruda the drug that is a household name.
Am I confusing an incredible drug with an incredible investment?
If Amtagvi growth stalls, margins don’t continue improving, NSCLC fails, frontline melanoma disappoints, or manufacturing can’t scale economically, my thesis needs to change.
But right now the opposite is happening.
Revenue is accelerating, guidance just got massively raised, margins are improving, and the pipeline is moving toward much larger indications.
I bought at \~$2.20 because I thought the market had essentially priced Iovance for failure.
At \~$11, obviously that mispricing has corrected substantially.
But my thesis was never $2 → $10.
I’m betting that Amtagvi is the beginning of a much larger TIL franchise across solid tumors.
Position: \~41,000 shares. Still holding. Will only begin selling at $50
Do your own DD.