Listen up fellow tards.
The situation is fluid (pun intended), but it's not oil, it's not iran, it's not the epstein regime, and it's not killer AI that will bring on the new depression. It's not any of the front and center things the news wants you to focus on, enabling them to better manipulate the markets. It's the thing growing, festering, and the neglected thing that for far too long has been growing in the closet while we hit new highs week after week. It's the thing that when the shit hits the fan, people will say to themselves, well no shit, of course that would lead to a new world order.
The thing that will bring us to our knees shortly is the very reason why my girlfriend left me. And the very reason why I will play the uno reverse card and finally prove her and her new boyfriend wrong. It's what all the billionaires and millionaires are afraid of.
I know what you're thinking: "another bear DD, the S&P is 0.7% from an all-time high, this guy will be liquidated by Thursday." Probably. But for the first time since 2009 the bear thesis doesn't need an opinion. It just needs you to read (which I know is difficult for us all in this thriving community).
DD:
The "safest asset in the world" is at an all-time low. $TLT closed last week at $79, and is even lower today. Its previous all-time low was about $82, in 2003. It's down more than 50% from its 2020 high. This "risk-free asset" has a drawdown that would get a crypto token delisted.
The 10-year yield closed at 5.18%, the highest since July 2007. Sit with that date. What happened roughly a year after July 2007? If you don't know, you're too young to be here.
So finally, what is that thing that's been growing in the closet that will bring us to our knees? The thing that will stop the music is quite simply why I can't pay my credit cards. It's not the debt I owe, no no... I can always get a new wendy's themed credit card for a junior bacon cheese burger for dinner. It's not just debt, but more importantly the interest I owe on my principle. It's the reason why I'll never have steak for dinner until my trade works out. And guess what, the fed is hiking those interest rates faster than I came the last time I had sex with my ex a year ago when I last called the top without the proper dd.
We crossed $40 trillion on August 18. That's $117,000 per American, and I have $412 in my Robinhood. They're saying 48 mil by 2028 and that estimate was made before we wanted to bring 2003 back and get into a forever war again.
"What's the thing that throws us over the edge with debt?" You ask?
The Cracks that Break the Camel's back:
1) The government got tied up in the circular investments into AI. It looked way too juicy for them to avoid. Problem is, AI makes mistakes. The intelligence is not "super". It's still following instructions, regardless if it goes "rogue". At the end of the day, it was instructed to go rogue. Costs are excessively high for something we still have to manage and direct, AI are just more retarded employees.
2) On September 24, $ORCL sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its 2.45-gigawatt Stargate data center in New Mexico. Force majeure is French for "we would like to not pay, please." The campus was built on an $18 BILLION loan from about 20 banks, and that loan now trades at 90 cents on the dollar.
3) $OWL - they went balls in on handing out loans for AI infrastructure entities. Their chart shows you exactly where they dipped their balls.
4) Finally: the coup de grâce: the entire AI economy in one sentence: Nvidia invests in OpenAI, OpenAI signs a $300B compute deal with Oracle, Oracle borrows to build data centers and buys Nvidia chips, Nvidia books it as revenue off debt that Oracle can never repay, everyone's stock goes up until the repo man comes calling. It's a group project where everyone grades each other. How confident are we that the debts will be paid? Didn't we have this same debt scare months ago?
Yes, but this time $