SpaceX IPO is so expected and elon is on track to become teh 1st Trillionair and I couldnt sleep last night so i actually read the SPCX S-1. 200+ pages. my wife thinks im unwell
heres what nobody screaming "biggest ipo ever" has noticed
so in 2024 spacex made like 790M in profit. cool. normal company stuff. then in 2025 they lost FOUR POINT NINE BILLION dollars. and Q1 this year alone they lost another 4.28B on 4.69B of revenue. think about that for a sec. they burned almost a dollar for every dollar that came in the door. and the losses are getting bigger not smaller
total damage since the company started: 37 billion. with a B
the reason is xai. elons chatbot thing. that segment lost 6.4B on 3.2B of revenue last year. Q1 it got worse, like 2.5B loss on 800 something million of revenue. and get this, SIXTY PERCENT of all capex last year went to gpus. not rockets. gpus. elon took the best aerospace company humans have ever built and turned it into a money pit so he could lose an AI race to sam altman of all people
starlink is the only thing that actually works in this whole filing. 11.4B revenue, 63% margins, 10.3M subs. its honestly one of the best businesses ive ever seen on paper. and its carrying a 1.75 TRILLION dollar valuation on its back by itself. one segment. ARPU dropped 18% to 81 bucks a month tho which nobody is talking about
they claim a 28.5 TRILLION dollar TAM. with a T. 26.5T of it is "ai." a number so big it stops meaning anything
starship has never put a single payload in orbit. ever. they pinky promise H2 2026. the entire growth story rests on a rocket that hasnt worked yet
musk keeps 85.1% of the voting power through dual class shares. you are not a shareholder you are a tourist
and the funniest one. 1.25 billion dollars a MONTH compute deal with anthropic. so elon is funding the company he literally sued. 15B a year flowing from xai to the guys he hates most. you cant make this up
aramco IPOd at 1.7T while making 88B a year in actual profit. SPCX wants the same number while torching 4B a quarter. think about that
idk man. starlink alone is probably worth 400-500B easy. starship if it works changes everything. but at 110x sales with the AI segment hemorrhaging and elon driving im not sure
what are yall doing with this one