Alright you beautiful helmet-wearing regards, I'm back with more BXBL. Quick recap for the ones who can't read: Boxabl builds houses that ship folded & unfold on site in under an hour. When I posted last time the stock was $3.98. On Sep 22 it closed at $4.20, and I am taking that as a sign from god.
That's +5.5% since my last post, six straight sessions of higher lows (3.87, 3.91, 3.97, 4.05, 4.09, 4.13, 4.14), & four straight closes above $4. This thing bled from $4.98 on Jul 29 to $3.89 on Aug 31, and the chart has finally stopped looking like your portfolio.
Here's the whole thesis in crayon so even your wife's boyfriend gets it. Building the house was the hard part, and Boxabl already did it. Selling the houses & driving them somewhere is the easy part, and everything they've done in the last month points straight at the easy part.
The hard part is done.
Boxabl spent $21.6M on R&D from 2022 to 2025 ($3.4M, $8.3M, $6.6M, $3.3M) teaching a house to fold like a lawn chair. They raised $230M+ from 50,000+ retail investors and built three factories in North Las Vegas totaling 421,823 sq ft. That is a metric fuckton of square footage dedicated to origami houses.
Now look at R&D for the first half of 2026: $840K, down from $1.26M in H1 2025 and way down from the $8.3M peak in 2023. R&D drops like that when you're done researching. The house works. They've built 846 of them, and California approved the two-bedroom version last November & handed them a commercial modular manufacturer license in December.
The rest of the costs got cut too. Opex went from $30.5M in H1 2025 to $10.1M in H1 2026, which is more restraint than anyone on this sub has ever shown with a margin account. Net loss went from $41.1M to $17.2M. Are they profitable? Fuck no, and I do not care, because they did more than 5x the revenue on a third of the opex.
Now they just need a guy with a truck.
As of Aug 21, Boxabl had built 846 Casitas and delivered 335. That means 511 houses are built & waiting on a truck. The factory prints houses faster than the company can ship them, and that's exactly the problem you want.
Let me break it down like this. Boxabl invented the house, the factory builds the house, and all that's left between the house and the revenue is a guy with a CDL & a flatbed. Engineering a house that folds took years. Driving one to a buyer is something the manufactured housing industry does every single day.
And the trucks are already rolling. H1 2026 revenue was $2.1M, which beat all of 2025 ($1.51M) & is more than 5x H1 2025 ($402K). They delivered 27 Casitas to 11 customers in the first half versus 5 Casitas to 5 customers a year ago, so people are buying these things in multiples now. 341 units were under contract as of Aug 21, and the 10-K lists dealer licenses in process across 14 states.
The deal I forgot to mention last time because I'm regarded.
On Aug 28 Boxabl filed an 8-K for a deal with LC Vegas Acquisitions, a national multifamily developer with over $1B in real estate developed or in process. It covers up to 1,580 ranch homes (3 bed, 2.5 bath, about 1,400 sq ft plus a carport) in 50-unit batches over three years, with an aggregate potential value of about $233M.
Yes, it says "up to" and "potential," because lawyers exist. Now do the crayon math with me. $233M is about 150x what Boxabl made in ALL of 2025. It works out to roughly $147K a house. And 1,580 houses is almost double every Casita they've ever built. These guys went from 361 sq ft studios to full-size family homes, & a real developer put its name on a deal for them.
The C-suite is peak Vegas.
The new CFO, Larry King, has 35+ years in finance, was Treasurer & CFO of Riviera Holdings when it traded on the American Stock Exchange, built Tropicana Entertainment's first SEC reporting function, was CFO of Chukchansi Gold Resort & Casino, and did senior finance at the Sahara. That's four casino companies. His background also