Alright regards, gather round. Every one of us has watched a SPAC take our money to Valhalla & come back with nothing but a warrant. I know. I have the helmet. So when I say the next play is a SPAC that builds tiny homes that unfold off a truck like a Transformer for people who got priced out of real houses, I understand the eye roll. I read the 10-K, the Q1 10-Q & the merger 8-Ks anyway, so you don't have to. So let's dive in.
What the fuck does Boxabl do?
They build the Casita. 361 sq ft studio, full kitchen, bathroom, utilities. It ships folded on a flatbed & unfolds on your lot in under an hour. Let me break it down: Home Depot sells you the lumber, your contractor ghosts you for 8 months & spends the deposit on a boat, Boxabl drives a house to your dirt & it's standing before lunch.
Three factories in North Las Vegas, 421,823 sq ft total, 128 employees. They've built 795 Casitas & delivered 312 through March 27. The lineup is widening: a 120 sq ft Baby Box built to RV code with pre-orders at $19,999 (cheaper than your 0DTE losses last year), a two-bedroom Casita that got California approval in November, a stackable multi-module system, & an emergency-housing unit called Sanctuary. Commercial modular license in California landed in December & dealer licenses are in process across 14 more states.
Yes, this is the company that raised $230M+ from 50,000+ retail investors on Reg A & spent years building factories instead of shipping homes. Every bear will bring it up. That's the past. The filings show the turn.
The numbers (pulled from the SEC, not my ass) -
FY2024 revenue: $3.38M, net loss $50.9M
FY2025 revenue: $1.51M, net loss $57.5M
Q1 2026 revenue: $1.56M, net loss $7.58M
Damn bruh, did Q1 2026 alone do more revenue than all of 2025? Yea cuh, you read that right. Quarterly loss came in 26% lower than Q1 2025 ($10.3M). Backlog as of March 27: 374 boxes under contract worth $25.7M, about 17x last year's entire revenue.
Profitable? No. Who the fuck cares. What matters is they can actually ship that backlog: 175 finished Casitas & 192 work-in-process were already sitting in inventory at year end. For years that pile WAS the bear case. Now it's a warehouse full of houses with buyers already signed. Cash was $22.3M at March 31 plus roughly $14M that came over from the SPAC trust at close. Cah-sheesh.
The share structure -
353.13M shares outstanding. The merger handed 350M of those to existing Boxabl holders, & per the July 17 8-K they're locked: 50% unlocks at 6 months only if the stock closes at $12+ for 20 of 30 trading days, the rest at 13 months (Aug 17, 2027). Founders, insiders & the 50,000 early investors rolled 100% of their equity into the public company & can't sell a share for 11 months. No insider dumping, no overhang, everyone who built this thing is in the same boat as you. Remember the BRUN post where the SPAC guys held when they could've sold & everyone called it a green flag? These guys literally can't sell. Greener flag. Green means go, homies.
What I'm watching (the sober paragraph, skip if allergic) -
The 10-K carries going-concern language & Q1 burn was \~$6.8M, so a raise at some point is likely. Aug 17, 2027 is when the locked shares become tradable, & that's a real date to circle. And Q1 needs a Q2 behind it to be a trend instead of a fluke. Those three things decide whether this works. Size it like a lottery ticket, not like your kid's college fund. You don't have a college fund anyway, you're here.
My take -
At $4.00 this is priced for the ramp, not for last year, & Q1 is the first quarter where the ramp shows up on the actual revenue line. Record revenue quarter, $25.7M backlog, shrinking losses, a widening product line, & insiders who can't sell. I like that setup a lot. Q2 is the next checkpoint & I'll be watching it from my Casita, which I can afford, unlike a house.
God speed regards.
Positions: 250 shares @ $