What the title says.
$COIN rallied yesterday as optimism around the CLARITY Act increased after Trump agreed to stronger ethics provisions in the revised bill. Prediction-market odds of the bill becoming law also jumped sharply on the news.
This is a major potential catalyst for Coinbase and the broader U.S. crypto industry. The CLARITY Act would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets and exchanges, which is something the industry has been pushing for heavily.
Here’s the problem: the Senate needs 60 votes to clear the key procedural/cloture vote. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, so even if every Republican votes yes, they still need at least seven additional votes from Democrats or independents. And if any Republicans defect, that number goes higher.
The latest version of the bill does make meaningful concessions. Republicans say it incorporates 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats, including stronger restrictions on public officials profiting from crypto ventures and more enforcement authority for state attorneys general.
But we’re also less than two months away from the November midterm elections. My thesis is that getting enough Democrats to support a major Trump-backed crypto bill this close to an election is still going to be difficult, even with the concessions.
So I’m betting on the CLARITY Act failing to clear the Senate procedural hurdle and $COIN selling off on the disappointment.
That’s the trade. Tell me where I’m wrong.