It has been a while since I have posted a Due Dilligence post here so buckle in because this is going to be a long one. No AI in this one either, this is all from the dome.
Here is my Original DD Post from 5 years ago and boy do I feel lucky that I have been able to build my position over time. A lot has changed since then, but some of it is still relevant.
So why has the share price increased and where is it going the rest of the year?
X users have been tracking recent $NOK options activity.
- Dec 2026 $24 calls worth $4.15M
- Jan 2027 $27 calls worth $1.5M
- Sep 2026 $19 calls worth $3.4M
- June 2026 $17 calls worth $700K
Calls have always been a dangerous game with $NOK, but these definitely caught my attention. There have been numerous examples of "unusual" options activity in the last 5 years, but I cannot remember a time when it was this big and this bullish.
These buyers could all be wrong. But big money players tends to know what they are doing.
So why are these calls being purchased? To frame this post, I wanted to address 5 rumors that have been circling Nokia recently and share my opinions.
Nvidia is Going to Buy More
If you are on this sub, you likely know that Nvidia bought $1B worth of Nokia shares in October of 2025. This is nearly a 3% stake in the company.
However, there are 2 things about this that have always struck me as odd.
First is that all of Nvidia's recent investments/partnerships (Marvell, Coherent, CoreWeave, Synopsys, Lumentum, and Nebius) have been $2B stakes. Why is Nokia's only $1b?
- There could be geopolitical reseasons (more on this later). Perhaps Nokia or the Finnish Government/Solidium wanted to limit outside control/ownership.
If you watch this Interview of Jensen Huang and Justin Hotard, you will notice it starts mid-interview now as do all of the other clips I can now find it.
Originally in this interview, Jensen started by saying that "no body knows communications better than Nokia" and that "he wishes the investment could have been $2B."
- If anyone can find the video let me know, but I think it has been scrubbed from the internet. Only proof I have is this Comment of mine referencing it 7 months ago.
So maybe Nokia negotiated a staggered buy in. This would not be out of character for the organization. They have treated buybacks similarly in the last few years.
- Instead of buying back shares all at once as many organizations do, they have bough back small tranches of shares over time.
Conclusion: These calls could be coming from Nvidia insiders.
The US Federal Goverment is Going to Buy a Stake
This may sound ridiculous at first, but this has been a rumor since early 2020.
Attorney General William Barr Publically Stated This years ago and it was a big part of why I originally entered a position in Nokia. This is why the Rip and Replace program exisits.
- The current administration has been hot on foreign tech in US telecommunications since their first term in power and nothing has changed.
If you watch the Interview of Jensen Huang above, he is asked about the current administration and he reiterates that current US telecom is built on "foreign tech."
- That phrase is somewhat funny to me because even though the CEO is now an American, Nokia of course is a foreign company based out of Finalnd.
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