After selling $META my next bet is $UBER
Before continuing. I have some comments towards $META, for one if you’re invested in this company sell now before it corrects back to $620. Next earnings should make you sweat, why ? CAPEX, you thought last quarter was bad ?? Add missed earnings plus increased CAPEX with no clear direction to monetize computing power or excess. I’m not pulling this outta my ass zuck said it himself that next quarter will slowdown but more worryingly he didn’t give any comments towards CAPEX spending. This market we are in isn’t like 2022 or 2023 investors are not just looking for ai buzzwords but rather a clear direction towards monetization/ai revenue. Example Microsoft.
I’m expecting Capex spending to continue till 2028. (No 1k meta yet)The play is buy $META LEAPS next earnings if it drops to below $600 or better $560 is my clear target to get 1/15/2028 strike price $550.
Now that’s outta the way. $UBER let me remind reddit one thing. $Uber isn’t burning money anymore it’s profitable. The latest drop is due to robotaxi concerns which this is very unwarranted, $UBER has captured global market share after burning billions. Not to mention they acquired Delivery Hero, which sure why would anyone care. Until they realize this acquisition reaches over 99 countries worldwide. Adding more exposure to developing markets in east Asia and key markets like Middle East and North Africa. Plus on top of that more exposure in central, eastern, and southern Europe. Sure the market there might be less than optimal due to Ukraine v Russia. But once this resolved I’m expecting this to add value mind you this isn’t short term but rather mid term (3years).
Final comments and concerns. Robotaxi is doing what $Uber spent nearly a decade doing, subsidizing their rides to capture market share. With all due respect I don’t see robotaxi taking significant market share from $Uber for one regulation. No drivers means these rides will fucking drive like a fucking granny. Creating traffic jams and accidents. Also have you seeing what happened with e scooters ? You see them in high traffic areas only because they have being restricted to operate only in designated areas. States have taking notice of this and will proactively limit or straight up ban robotaxis limiting their exposure to less traffic areas/not wanted areas . Why ? They’re not scooters they’re cars they take a lot of space.
Also $Uber is diversified sure their cash cow is $Uber rides 50% following delivery 47% and last percentage freight. Although delivery has lower margins their profit margin has expanded year over year thanks to high margin restaurants.
Main bottleneck for robotaxi geofencing. It takes thousands of hours to map roads, structure not to mention weather limits. Robotaxis are like roller coaster it must be clear as a summers day to operate due to safety checks and permit issuance. $Uber doesn’t have this. Plus you can take a ride to the airport. The main bottleneck for $uber is head butting with states on labor and regulatory issues. Completely light compared to robotaxi.
As of now I did some DCFs calculations plus some technical analysis which led to my target share price of $130. Wallstreet agrees with me and so does seeking alpha.
That’s it.