Three years ago I posted this DD calling AbCellera an “easy 2x.”
Original DD: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/14mcdzo/abcellera\_abcl\_the\_aipowered\_drug\_discovery\_gem/
Turns out “easy” was doing a lot of work in that sentence.
ABCL proceeded to take the long, painful route. The stock got crushed, biotech stayed out of favor, and for a long time the market gave basically zero credit to the platform.
I held through it.
Current Holdings as of 8\/25\/26
And unlike the first time I posted about it, ABCL now has something much more important than an interesting technology platform:
ABCL635 changed the story
ABCL635 is AbCellera's internally developed antibody targeting NK3R for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause.
The Phase 2 results were strong.
The drug produced an 83% reduction in moderate-to-severe hot flash frequency, compared with 33% for placebo, along with significant improvement in severity and sleep.
Just as importantly, there were no serious adverse events or discontinuations during the four-week treatment period.
The business around it is getting stronger too
AbCellera isn't betting everything on one molecule.
They now have a growing collection of partnered molecules in the clinic while continuing to sign major discovery deals.
They've added collaborations with companies including Vertex and Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and the Jazz agreement potentially carries hundreds of millions of dollars in milestones per program plus royalties.
That model is what originally attracted me to ABCL.
They can generate revenue from partnerships while retaining upside in drugs discovered using their platform, and now they're building their own internal pipeline on top of it.
Then institutions just gave them another $200M
After the ABCL635 data, AbCellera priced an oversubscribed $200M offering at $9.75/share.
Normally dilution is a bad thing but it absorbed it like a champ and ABCL is now trading around $12.50, roughly 28% above the offering price.
They get another $200M to push its internal pipeline forward without needing to worry about near-term financing.
Why I'm holding for $15
I'm not claiming ABCL is suddenly worth $30 tomorrow but it has a good shot.
At $12.51 the market cap is already around $4B, so expectations are clearly much higher than they were when the stock was sitting at $3-$4.
But I think $15 is reasonable I'm treating that as my next decision point.
Today's move
ABCL jumped another 17.8% today and closed around $12.51, basically at its 52-week high.
The interesting part is that there wasn't some massive new ABCL announcement today.
This looks more like the market continuing to reprice the company following the Phase 2 data, financing, partnerships and improved pipeline outlook.
It didn't spike 20% at the open and collapse either.
It opened around $11 and spent most of the session grinding higher.
That's the type of price action I want to see while holding a breakout.
Risks
It's still biotech, proceed with caution setbacks are common. ABCL635 has encouraging Phase 2 data, not an FDA approval. Phase 3 can fail. Partner programs can disappear.
Still holding.
Next stop I'm watching: $15.