Good day you sick fucking slobs.
I would like to call to your attention a trade that boarders between a schizophrenic wet dream and what could be the greatest call of my life. Only time will tell.
TLDR; YOLO’ing on 351 WEAT calls set to expire at the end of this year. Strike is 30 dollars. Bull case is Black Sea shipping, El Nino and Fertilizer issues.
I anticipate being in Wheat through the end of this year. May also buy some of the 12/17/2027 calls.
I have spent the better part of 2 years watching commodity prices much closer after the recent run in silver. Around June and July 2025 I purchased several SLV calls at a strike price of 60 USD. They where averaged at 1.51 dollars and the highest one sold for about 4800 bucks.
After this I learned to 2 key things
- I can actually make money off this stuff as long as I have balls of iron
- What was the best trade of my life only worked because of deep DD and having a plan to take profits in place.
This brings me to why I am in the WEAT trade. Yes this is wheat like the stuff that grows out of the ground.
The 28th of February I had been sitting on some of my SLV Cash and like every morning for the past 2 weeks opened my phone and googled “Iran”. My fears came true as I saw the US had attacked. I had been watching daily a popular live stream on a Youtube channel called “The Enforcer” and thinking there was no way all those ships would be put in the region with no action. However I held back on going long oil because I felt that was too cocky and lightning would not strike twice. I was wrong and then FOMO’ed in and lost some of my profits.
Coming off that burn I set back to form a plan. slowly the pieces started to come together. Weather, world war 3, El Nino, Russia/Ukraine, Fertilizer, scared countries stockpiling food - I needed to buy Agriculture. I chose to go with Wheat.
Starting with the less crazy stuff below and going full Alex Jones at the end this is my case:
First we have Logistics, Weather and Fertilizer to deal with:
Currently we are in the 5th year of the Russia Ukraine war. Nothing new to see here right? Wrong. If you are not familiar these 2 countries supply about 28% of internationally traded wheat. During this war Ukraine has substantially updated its drone tech and both sides have reached a point in the fighting that indicates a ramp up in the conflict.
In previous years we operated under the black sea grain initiative. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black\_Sea\_Grain\_Initiative
In this way both countries agreed to allow grain ships to pass by because both countries had teams in Turkey which could inspect ships coming and going for weapons and such. This is now off the table of late 2023. This year Ukraine has hit Russia so hard that they not only took off half of the Russia’s refining capacity making them an importer of Diesel and Gasoline but they also have shut off shipping in the Sea of Azov.
https://preview.redd.it/fhbb74b99ekh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=84721812c157594293fa476833e47fdf1a8e1735
Through Azov Russia normally exports about 25% of its Wheat with the Major fallback being Novorossiysk. However due to drone strikes that terminal had recently stopped operation between midnight and 5 AM. In more recent days additional strikes severely damaged this port as well making its operations severely dampened. https://eaworldview.com/2026/08/ukraine-war-novorossiysk-kyiv-damages-russian-warships-and-grain-terminals/
Each time Ukraine hits Russia we see reciprocal strike on Odessa which normally accounts for 90% of Ukrainian grain exports.
The only alternative routes out of these countries are by rain. However the both Ukraine and Russia use the “Russian Gauge” - A rail gauge of 1,520 mm which is different from th