Note: This is my assessment and opinion. I place high probability on this coming to pass, but there's always a chance that it does not.
While Strategy management is running around like a headless chicken and changing strategies like one changes underwear, I believe $MSTR is lining up for another leg down.
Simply because Strategy's fortunes are tied to those of Bitcoin at the hip, and Bitcoin is showing signs of keeling over:
Left: Flags on Bitcoin | Right: Liquidity \(GLI Indicator on tV\)
Both the technicals and liquidity suggest it's time for Bitcoin's next leg down. Perhaps the final leg down, before it starts bottoming. (Yes, these measures are reliable; you can see track record of this here on X.)
Here's a sensitivity table based on BTC price and mNav, given the current balance sheet:
MSTR price sensitivity table \(my calculations\)
(The negative numbers are mathematical - at that point, MSTR starts being priced like an option.)
Based ON Bitcoin's expected trajectory, I expect MSTR to hit $40ish in the next 8-12 weeks.
Ironically, the saving grace is the $4.65B in USD reserves. Without it, MSTR would be in the teens if Bitcoin fell more than half. You can see that effect here:
Strategy balance sheet at current BTC price and BTC @ $12K \(my calculations\)
What invalidates this? Bitcoin finding a bottom sooner, and even starting to move up. Which will happen when Treasury yields fall, and there is a major liquidity pump. Hard to see that without a recession, and there are few signs of that.
So I feel pretty comfortable with this prognosis. At least directionally.
Positions: None yet; will initiate with MSTZ next week.