Previous Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1tw3y64/upcoming\_epic\_crash\_for\_pride\_month/
I still believe in the core thesis: oil shortage -> short term inflation surge -> long duration treasury bond yield surge -> demand destruction and liquidity drain aka recession. However, in terms of the correct market play, shorting the broad index is not the best idea. I realized that the broad market refuses to fall because software and hardware stocks have been inverse each other, thus balancing gains and losses in the index. Therefore, the more direct play for my thesis would be to go long oil.
To add on to the previous thesis, there is another catalyst that I believe will cause oil prices to rise. 👁️🏃♂️ intends to spike crude oil to try to ensure that 🥭’s party loses the midterm elections. 👁️🏃♂️ will keep feigning a deal to stall for time, only to continue to attack tankers in the strait. There are two likely scenarios that can play out from this: either 🥭 escalates or 👁️🏃♂️ escalates, both leading to crude oil spiking.
Furthermore, even if nothing happens geopolitically, supply and demand dictates that crude oil is undervalued considering the circumstances. Even though there is theoretically an oil glut in the Persian gulf, none of it matters if the oil cannot be transported out of there because both straits are blocked, there are rising insurance costs, and an unwillingness of tankers to return to the strait to risk their lives. Countries like China and Japan buying on the open market to refill their strategic reserves can also be the catalyst for crude oil spiking as well.
Open position:
https://preview.redd.it/w92vryxmifjh1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=001fea0a6d72b3ffdbec5ec7f93d759fe2777df0
Closed positions:
https://preview.redd.it/gbil3qyuifjh1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af070f2d2cf6d3db185a51f6ad333807a0a8abf8
https://preview.redd.it/o1lksufwifjh1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e7064db618754ff757812d8714769495f7a4cf2