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$GME DD, Friday OPEX 3/12 post mortem, WARNING Gamma decrease

BEARISH by u/indonesian_activist | Mar 13, 2021 | 2830↑ 608 comments | 28 views | VIEW ON REDDIT
$GME
$GME GAMESTOP CORPORATION CONSUMER CYCLICAL EQUITY SIMULATION
$19.89
+1.00 (+5.29%)
LAST PRICE Β· 15 MIN DELAY
DAY CHG +5.29%
5D CHG +5.74%
30D CHG -7.92%
AI SUMMARY β€” Post-mortem analysis of failed gamma squeeze predictions for GME's 3/12 OPEX, warning that OTM calls (like $270C) carry extreme risk of total loss and recommending safer ITM calls ($100-110C range) instead for better risk-adjusted amplification factors.
TICKERGME USERu/indonesian_activist
RATING BEARISH ENTRY $66.12
POSITION 151 sh SYN BOOK VAL $9984.88
CURRENT $19.89 P&L % -69.92%
CURR VAL $3003.39 P&L $ -6981.49

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https://preview.redd.it/ltafulxf2qm61.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae93ec64ec0c8db60c19536b0714b2e184d5c065

Ok, this DD is to analyze what apes could've done better, and how to address it

"The stock will hit 300 they said... we have volume behind us they said... buy near ITM calls they said." /u/baturu

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/m3re9y/the\_stock\_will\_hit\_300\_they\_said\_we\_have\_volume/

https://preview.redd.it/yepmphzd2qm61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c85964a864ce5531256d548417fde8c5bf6ce2e

I've just noticed the OP of that lost porn did send me a pm, but I didn't reply.(my bad)

To be clear, here's a quote from my Donkey Kong DD, Monday Morning 3/8

"🦍 🦍 🦍 optimize your stimmy 🍌🍌🍌, $GME gamma squeeze calculator update"

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/m0eeav/optimize\_your\_stimmy\_gme\_gamma\_squeeze\_calculator/

>The 3/12 270C, if apes were to buy one contract, 3.04 x 100 = $304, then MMs would need to hedge 0.137x100x137.74 = $1882 worth of shares to remain delta neutral
>
>Giving an amplification factor of
>
>1 🍌 -> 6 🍌
>
>OTM calls like these might be fine for YOLO-ers 🦍 , but carry very high risk of 🦍 loosing all 🍌, if 3/12 closing price ends below 270. A safer way for 🦍, would probably be ITM calls, somewhere around the 100-110C strike price
>
>This would still gives 1 🍌 -> 3 🍌 in delta hedge amplification

The 270C 3/12 was then quoted by the Forbes article on gamma swarm, Wednesday Night 3/10

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2021/03/10/gamestop-the-second-surgeanatomy-of-a-gamma-swarm/?sh=6af3a3a64225

>Imagine that a swarm of, say, 10,000 members, each invested $1,000 in GME $270 call options for Friday March 12. The March 9 cost of the option is $24. If all option sellers hedged, it could drive perhaps $100 million of share volume, at the then current prices.
>
>...
>
>A naked March 12 call option with a strike price of $270 would have exposed the seller to a loss of $56 a share. It is highly likely that the sellers of such options would have allowed themselves to be exposed to this risk. They would have covered, hedged, by purchasing shares – adding to the surge. Gamma power!\]

What most of you degenerates did was this instead

>800 -207.69% 0.4 0.41 0.41 0.41 -1.93 -82.48% 27,536 29,496 0.93 860.47% Call 3/11/2021
>
>800 -202.46% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -2.33 -99.57% 76,466 36,239 2.11 615.31% Call 3/12/2021

G'damn degenerates piling into the 800C 3/12; Look, that far OTM have too low delta to trigger MMs forced buying. 🦍🦍🦍, is not every day you can trigger the gamma squeeze, some brokers are even actively trying to block it as seen by this post from an ape being blocked buying calls and puts by his broker of fear triggering a gamma squeeze.

"πŸ›ΈπŸ›ΈπŸ›ΈTinfoil Hats Required πŸ›ΈπŸ›ΈπŸ›Έ" u/Heavy-Ad-2498

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/m3yews/tinfoil\_hats\_required/

>In both cases, I was LITERALLY told by my brokerage ON A RECORDED LINE that the decision was made to protect the Market Makers from having to hedge and in turn causing a gamma squeeze????

They are trying to limit new 0DTE options writing to prevent gamma squeeze on OPEX, but most brokers should still allow you to buy weeklies on $GME.

Looking at this graph, the Calls OI falls dramatically after 3/19

https://preview.redd.it/68ultrl34qm61.jpg?width=755&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2fdcd61bd77cda27ed7