TLDR: Some Italians trying to replicate Buffett by buying dogshit software products and jacking prices. The $BSP stock will melt like their Italian cheese reserves. Buy Puts
Background
My last trade to long $SKM was a 2x here, I like asymmetric setups based on fundamental value.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qnqd2l/dd\_anthropic\_pure\_play\_skm/
Summary
$BSP trades at $52. The market cap is $32B.
The business is a roll-up of old apps: Evernote, AOL, Vimeo, Meetup, WeTransfer.
The headline growth is 84% per year. But acquisitions bought almost all of it. Organic growth is only 5–6%.
Net revenue retention is 91–95%. The existing customer base shrinks every year. Every asset they buy is a melting ice cube.
GAAP net income: \~zero. Interest costs eat \~$370M per year. Leverage is 2.2x on a friendly EBITDA definition.
Free cash flow next 12 months: \~$670M base case. At $32B, you pay 48x FCF. A 2.1% yield.
Constellation Software is the best serial acquirer ever. It trades at 30–35x FCF. It has 25 years of proof, no net debt, and sticky B2B software. $BSP trades above that multiple with 3 years of audited history and shitty consumer apps like evernote LOL.
The math at $52: FCF must grow 25% per year for 7 years, and the exit multiple must stay at 20x. That gives you a 10% return. Perfect execution = a market return. One bad quarter = a 30%+ drop.
The IPO priced at $29 six weeks ago. That valued the company at $18B. Nothing fundamental changed since then. The stock just doubled.
The stock right now has low float and is experiencing a short s q u e e z e e . There is more shares coming in November as restricted period expires 48 hours after the second quarterly earnings release, provided at least 125 days have elapsed — i.e. on or after roughly November 2, 2026.
318,510,767 ordinary shares will become available on November 3 to dump on retail.
Trade
I have 21k in Cctober 16 55 puts right now I entered today when $BSP was around 55. I chose October because I believe the unlock news will be front run way before the actual date ( see Spacex pattern last week ). If this shitco gets upwards of 70-80+ I'm going to double my puts.
There is just no way this collection of price gouging shitty software is worth this price.