Based on today's call, I believe a fair PT is now $90 and OKLO is a strong speculative BUY.
The framework I've been using for OKLO had two major events take place. First, criticality. Second, revenue. The current market reactions as of writing this (9.3% intraday to $46.12) is an underreaction. The criticality achievement retires the single largest class of bear argument (that Oklo had never built or operated anything), while the balance sheet ($3bn after H1 ATM activity) now fully funds the raised spending plan into the 2028 Aurora-INL startup window.
The quarter itself: revenue of $1.21M against roughly $0.1M expected (the first revenue in company history, which we attribute primarily to third-party engineering and manufacturing work at the newly acquired ARMEC and Creative Engineers businesses; management guided first isotope revenue to early 2027 from the Idaho Radiochemistry Lab); Q2 net loss of $48.5M and adjusted EPS of $(0.28) versus $(0.16) expected, with the miss driven by first-of-a-kind Aurora-INL costs that were expensed rather than capitalized and by deliberately accelerated project spending; and H1 operating cash use of $65.5M with capex of $126.9M. Management raised FY26 spending guidance (operating cash use to $120-150M from $80-100M; PP&E to $400-500M from $350-450M), which we read as a funded pull-forward for delivery assurance, not scope creep: long-lead procurement, grid interconnection work, and an opportunistic fuel purchase, all in service of the unchanged 2028 first-power target.
Major Thesis Updates:
- The dominant skeptic argument for two years was that Oklo had never sited, built, licensed, commissioned, or operated a reactor. As of this week it has done all five, in 11 months, with its own operators, on private land, under DOE authorization. Every future asset (Aurora-INL, Ohio, fuel facilities, Groves 2) now starts from a proven playbook with a trained organization. I raise my Aurora-INL first-power probability to 68% from 62% on this basis.
- Management's framing (one platform across power, fuel, and isotopes rather than three businesses) showed up concretely this quarter: first revenue from the acquired manufacturing/engineering capabilities, criticality in isotopes, A3F fuel fabrication equipment in production for 2027 installation, and the Centrus LOI creating a domestic HALEU pathway sized for up to five Aurora powerhouses with deliveries from 2029. Vertical integration is also a financing strategy: management explicitly outlined structures where third-party capital funds a greater share of powerhouse deployment while Oklo retains fuel, operations, and isotope economics.
- Three complementary pathways now have concrete milestones: EBR-II recovered material for the first core; DOE surplus-plutonium negotiations (a \~20-ton tranche across recipients; blended at 10-13% content, management sizes the opportunity at up to \~2 GW of support) validated by December's Los Alamos critical-assembly campaign; and the Centrus commercial pathway with potential customer-funded prepayments for the Ohio campus. Recycling remains the terminal advantage. I raise the recycling-at-scale probability to 45% from 40%.
- Kiewit MOU for EPC planning on the 1.2 GW Meta campus, PJM interconnection applications advancing, Centrus HALEU production in the same region, and received customer payments (Meta, Equinix) all point to the same corridor. I raise Meta Ohio Phase 1 probability to 55% from 50%.
- Groves is operating; R&D quantities are expected within \~12 months; first isotope revenue is guided to early 2027 from the licensed Idaho lab (a correction to our prior 2026 assumption, on the record); commercial offtake discussions are ongoing; a dedicated BU leader (Ray Wang) is in seat; and the next isotope facility is already in planning. The milestone probability rises to 62% from 50% (criticality done; scaled commercial sales remain the handicapped half).
- The DOE Genesis Mission selected the INL-led Prom