Alright WSB. So I (for research purposes) decided to download Grindr and immediately got like 15x as many matches as I did on Tinder. This made me realize that Grindr is probably making HELLA tendies from these insanely active users.
It turns out I was right, and GRND is set up for insane growth and $$ in the future.
Now I will make this shit short because you all have an attention span shorter than a cocaine crazed monkey. (If you want more information, here's a ton of info I collected about the company https://docs.google.com/document/d/14PLrTHYfY3Hz\_udhv2DrDCgGNqeAkdJk7HbvjLLTUh4/edit?usp=sharing) \*WARNING, there are no crayon pictures -- so if you can't read don't click the link
Thesis:
- Americans are lonelier, hornier, and gayer than ever, and who will benefit from that? Grindr!
- GRND has a large and growing monetizable user base
- Solid fundamentals with rapidly increasing Revenue and EBITDA
- Low IV and Beta
- 94.8% of shares are not publicly traded
For those of you who wanna actually “invest” (or atleast buy Leaps), I’ll give you the long-term play first. For the rest of you who just wanna YOLO on Weeklies, the short-term play is further below.
Long-Term:
Loneliness rates in America are rising at a rapid pace, with each subsequent generation more lonely than the last
https://preview.redd.it/g13xnibdh67b1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=4509902f369114f252a1169c5dc24d551ce5e337
This is set to continue as technology makes us more disconnected. This sounds sad, but guess what we can do from this? GET FUCKING RICH!
Because of this, online dating apps are increasing insanely fast. A lot of lonely people (especially redditors), will pay insane amounts of money for the chance to date or have sex.
In addition to this, younger generations are MUCH more likely to identify as LGBT+
https://preview.redd.it/3v1rg9wdh67b1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=d241bb36f92bb59658785f376280b164228002cb
This sets up GRND in a PERFECT position. Growing loneliness and growing gayness. And they have capitalized on this, with now over 13 million monthly active users
And luckily for Grindr, 90% of their revenue comes from subscriptions. This means any potential economic slowdown won't impact them nearly as much as their competitors who rely more on ads.
In addition to this, the fundamentals are solid
- The company has positive FCF and rapidly growing EBITDA meaning GRND likely won’t need to raise more capital
- EBITDA is growing MUCH faster than revenue - meaning this company will be a cash flow machine!
- Revenue is still growing fast and is projected to continue like that for some time
- Their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is almost 2x as high as their competitors such as Bumble and 1.5x higher than Match Group
- Their Cost of Revenue is decreasing over time while their Gross Profit is growing at 35%+
- Their assets are growing faster than their liabilities
These numbers are crazy good, especially considering these are Y/Y numbers that were likely inflated by COVID and lonely people in lockdown with a ton of $$ and time to spend.
Now I spent 10 hours digging deeper into the filings and found a fuck ton of good numbers - but that is kinda boring so if u have questions and wanna see info just comment or go to the google doc pasted above.
For those with gambling addictions, here is the short term play
Short Term:
GRND’s public float is ONLY 5.2% of outstanding shares, with the rest being held by insiders and institutions.
https://preview.redd.it/ygz92g2fh67b1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=d64003a6c8cb125939fd1059995efc6fcaccc4f9
What this means is any buying pressure has a MASSIVE impact on share prices. Like I am talking about a bigger impact than when your wife’s boyfriend pounds her.
In addition, 72.5% of the shares CAN’T even be sold!