I've been seeing a lot of posts about Trump posting and moving markets. However, I wanted to see if he actually moved markets, and if he did, by how much?
So, I scraped 96,379 of his posts (X/Truth Social) from 2009-05-04 to 2026-06-18. After, I ran a local LLM to extract related tickers and pulled relevant stock prices.
This will be very strange according to the public's sentiment, but only 2% of his posts had the potential to move the market. His posts moved markets more in his presidential terms, and his current term is on the trajectory to have more potentially market-moving posts compared to the first one.
Mean change in price with respect to time from post.
This graph shows that his posts don't really move prices on their own. It is worth noting that the average change in price is always positive and posts from the second term move markets much more compared to other periods. His posts also seem to consolidate current trends in the stock's prices. 1 month before the post almost has the same average change in price as a month after the post. Even though the average price changes follow this pattern, some individual markets don't, and here they are:
Among all, DJT has the greatest average next-day change (makes sense), and the price is heavily corrected in the weeks after.
Overall, this has been a fun day project, and let me know if you have any questions or want me to add anything else to this. As always, don't take this as financial advice and do your research. Past performance will not indicate future results.
Happy profits,
stochastic\_person