Please find a crack and point it out. Ask anything. Im not in love with the stock. I just cant find a reason why Im able to buy a sovereign ai provider with a signed gov contract for 3.26 a share (a national security contractor).
I bought in early and took profit already. Building back into a position now.
Hive investment thesis….
TLDR- Im buying the crap out of HIVE. Undervalued data center / sovereign ai provider. Seems to be filling a gap (about 3$ to fill) and is trading at a book value of around 1.5. P/S of about 3. Under 1 bil FF market cap. Valuation metrics are out of date (due to contracts and accumulation of hardware / nvda gpu clusters / land and infrastructure).
DD. I’ve researched the 💩 out of HIVE.
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I’ll share the bear cases first. When I researched the bear cases, i resolve every single one as actually positive.
- Dilution. Biggest concern for a growth company.
Just closed an institutional offering originally 100mil, upsized to 130 mil $ due to over subscription. Proceeds for expansion / accumulation of NVDA hardware (NVDA platinum partner with priority access to hardware).
Institutional investment is positive and the structure of the offering is genius. Second institutional offering same structure (closed in April).
Notes due 2031 and Dilution only occurs if price is over +8.53 (notes can be exercised early if price is above 8.53 for 20 consecutive trading days).
0% interest on capital in a high interest macro environment. Then, Hive has purchased capped call options to mitigate dilution. Notes called back can be paid with cash value or shares. Capped call options ensure capital to pay out or buy back shares. Dilution mitigated enough for me.
The ATM offering open since November 2025 is not share based. It is a dollar value based offering. 215 million $ left to sell.
Hive sold shares on a pop to 7+$, but so did I. They have only sold 85m $. If they needed money for operations, that would be gone.
This is a safety net and selling at the right time. Even if HIVE ever dollar of that offering, that would be less that 60 million shares and would be absorbed in less than 3 days (based on average daily volume) and not impact share price one bit.
Google just sold shares to fund ai expansion. Different, but same.
I check for selling on a regular basis. It’s information you can find in a minute or two.
- Execution delays. If hardware cannot be delivered, revenue growth will be delayed.
Revenue is growing by well over 100% both yoy and quarter to quarter.
Platinum partnership with NVDA means they get their compute power when it’s available.
Not a concern.
- Not a USA operator and smaller in scale compared to the largest companies in the world in the ai / data center asset class.
HIVE has a niche in the data center asset class. Sovereign Ai is a matter of national security. Data collected cannot leave the borders of a country.
Not a stretch- they are already a defense contractor with Canada. I think Sweden and Paraguay are next.
They have established infrastructure in Sweden, Canada, and Paraguay. Letter of intent with Sweden, not formal confirmation, but it’s coming.
We have already seen the push back on data centers in the US. No one wants a data center in their town because it drives up electricity cost. The USA will also have strict regulations that delay operation.
Resolved.
- Restricted Share Units and insider selling.
Hive is executing and the leadership should get paid.
I think Peter Beck sold shares at 12$ to set up something like retirement fund. People were freaking out and I watched a few dollars peal off before price continued upward.
The RSUs… they are in press releases now (at a low) and mature date is like getting insider information only it’s legal and disclosed to everyone... If you take 2 minutes, you can see when the shares mature. That is kinda telling you when you might want to take profit on some of your position.