Read Only Version of Google Sheet for Comparing Daily Price Change With Multiple Markets' Short Volume \- Go Nuts Everyone!
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Last night I looked into SNDL and started comparing activities across the various markets that I could find, two for NASDAQ and FINRA's off-exchanges volumes. I sort of expected the relative volumes to be comparable in ratio, but they're not.
No, in fact there is some SERIOUS delay in tracking when markets start to swell up in short volume. If you look at Figure 1 you can see that they don't really seem to follow each other at all most of the time.
Except, when the different market volumes DO start to overlap and follow each other, THAT is when we see the larger dips in stock prices for those days!
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Now if you look at Jan 27th and Feb 10th in Figure 1 you'll see that NASDAQ PSX short volume peaked high, and FINRA and NASDAQ Boston synced up and peaked the very next day.
Yes, it is really easy with hindsight 20/20 to say "OH YEA IT WAS IN THE DATA RIGHT THERE" but I noticed something from another "penny stock" and made the same plot for the different volumes in the market.
Figure 2: Same plot for different stock, showing similar trends as SNDL.
Here, we again see the THREE DIFFERENT MARKETS dont usually line up, but when THEY DO START TO SYNC, the price has the largest dips the next day!
So if this is correct, than it's possible to see dip the next day IF the NASDAQ PSX ShortVolume and FINRA Short Volume begin to move together towards a peak. We'll see tomorrow, but I think this will show a drop tomorrow of over 20%
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TLDR:
- Using only 2 data points(stocks) I was able to draw a trendline!
- If different markets start to sync up in volumes, the next day seems to have the largest dips in share price.
- IF my shit analysis is correct, than Boaty Stock is going to crash by over 30% tomorrow, MAYBE
Edit 1: Added the links to where you can find the volume txt files, but I've been having issues with the FINRA site, have to clear the browser sometimes or it takes you to a login screen.
[NASDAQ Volume Files I'm Using](ftp://ftp.nasdaqtrader.com/files/shortsaledata/daily/)FINRA Volumes Files I'm Using
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Edit 2: Was asked to see how my "theory" checks out with today's dip in TLRY:
Edit 2.75: TESLA, this janky ass theory seems to hold for TSLA?!
Edit 3: BoatyMcBoatFace -4:30am 16% !!! 5am -13%, 9am -20%, 9:25am -13%, 10:30am -18%, Noon - 15%, 1pm - 15%, 2:45pm - 14%
Edit 4: WELP.... -15%, I guessed 20% above, then 3 lines down I said 30%. Now gotta wait till 6pm to get FINRA numbers to see what the 3 volumes looked like.
Edit 5: FINAL EDIT, with all the market volumes falling. No idea what it means when they all dip still fairly tight like that, need to go through more data.
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https://preview.redd.it/2nyzdcflo4h61.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7d81eb1b1dd90cd4a1b0526b2c82cac9e128302
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[Read Only Version of Google Sheet for Comparing Daily Price Change With