\\TLDR:\\
Sable Offshore Corp ($SOC) is a misunderstood, high-risk / high-reward oil restart story. The market is currently pricing the company as if financing + California litigation can permanently impair the asset (which I obviously believe is incorrect).
The core asset (the Santa Ynez Unit offshore California) is already producing and has resumed oil sales. Sable’s latest investor presentation shows net estimated reserves of 659 million barrels of oil equivalent (worth >$48 BILLION at $73 per barrel) and 2027E midpoint guidance of roughly $1.1b revenue, $862m adjusted EBITDA, and $753m unlevered FCF. Against a current market cap of only \~$475m and EV of only \~$1.4b after today’s selloff, the math is extremely asymmetric if / when operations continue.
While the bear case is real (dilution / refinancing overhang, ongoing CA litigation and regulatory hostility), the bull case is MORE real: federal government support has strengthened materially, DOE / DOI leadership physically visited the asset, DOE is in active dialogue around a potential West Coast Strategic Petroleum Reserve tied to Sable, and current guidance implies the company is trading at roughly 1.6x 2027E EV / EBITDA and 1.9x 2027E EV / unlevered FCF (incredibly low multiples if that wasn’t obvious).
Position: 9k shares (6k added today) with additional significant short put and long call option exposure.
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/n4YpMqB
\\Full DD:\\
\\1. The setup\\
Sable Offshore owns and operates the Santa Ynez Unit, or SYU, an offshore California oil and gas asset originally developed by ExxonMobil. SYU includes 16 federal leases, three offshore platforms (Harmony, Heritage, Hondo) and related processing / pipeline infrastructure, including the Las Flores Canyon facility and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System.
The asset was shut in after the 2015 Refugio spill, but Sable acquired SYU and related infrastructure in 2024 and has been working through the restart (including maintenance / repairs to prevent a repeat of 2015). Sable restarted production at Platform Harmony in May 2025, resumed transportation through the pipeline system in March 2026 pursuant to a DOE Defense Production Act order, and announced first oil sales through the Santa Ynez Pipeline System to Chevron on March 29, 2026.
The market is focused on the downside, but at the end of day this is a large, producing, oil-heavy asset in one of the most structurally supply-constrained petroleum markets in the U.S.
\\2. Why this asset matters\\
California is structurally short crude. California is an “energy island” with declining refining capacity, declining in-state crude output, and increased reliance on foreign imports (laughable situation to say the least). California’s petroleum demand is \~1.5 MMBbl/d, (that’s 1.5 million barrels of oil per day for those that are regarded), and foreign oil represented 61% of California oil supply in 2025 (insane).
This matters because Sable’s barrels are not generic barrels. They are local California barrels feeding a market with limited pipeline connectivity to the rest of the U.S., shrinking local supply, and elevated exposure to imported crude. That is why the federal government is framing this as a national-security / energy-security issue rather than just a local oil restart. DOE’s March 2026 order specifically argued that Sable’s production could replace foreign crude and support West Coast / military fuel security.
California state leadership is hostile (surprise surprise), but the current federal administration has directly backed Sable through the DPA, PHMSA jurisdiction, DOJ intervention / statements, and cabinet-level site visits.
\\3. Recent catalysts / current events\\
\\Federal support is not theoretical anymore\\
On March 13, 2026, Energy Secretary Chris Wright directed Sable to resto