Gather around folks, hope y’all made some gains the last time around. This DD is split into 8 parts, so feel free to jump to whichever section you’re most interested in.
Part 1 – Introduction
Part 2 – Market Trends and Upcoming Catalysts
Part 3 – Company Overview and Unique Value Proposition
Part 4 – Recent Updates
Part 5 – Financials and Valuation
Part 6 – Bear Case
Part 7 – SI and Squeeze Potential
Part 8 – TL;DR
Part 1 – Introduction
It was a warm Monday morning on August 23rd almost a month back, when seemingly for no reason – GOEV shot up from ~$5.9 to ~$8, a 30% gain on the day. The next day – GME popped, for a 30% gain as well, with AMC and BB also making up big gains, leading to the ‘meme mania’ we’ve been experiencing for the last couple of weeks.
Why’d this happen? Well there were no company/industry catalysts. The only event that seemed to occur in the prior week was the expiration of monthly options. One of the theories going around is that there’s an almost quarterly cycle going on at this point where FTD’s are leading to a surge in prices in the next cycle for ‘meme stocks’ which tend to be heavily shorted for the most part. How accurate this is I have no clue and whether this applies to GOEV I don’t know, haven’t investigated that particular theory but there’s plenty of posts/comments floating around for you to look into if you’re so inclined.
The quick point I’m trying to make here is that if a heavily shorted stock is popping 30% in a day, with no major catalyst for the industry or the company in question – and that company is now advancing towards realizing its major milestones with favorable tailwinds expected for the sector, it could pop a lot more than 30% in the months to come. GOEV is among the youngest EV companies - having been around for less than 5 years, with arguably the most unique vehicles coming out (on schedule – seems to be pretty amazing in the EV space) that very few, if any, of the established or other up and coming competitors are producing, and has been shorted more it seems – for the failure of its peers than any real fault of its own.
Part 2 – Market Trends and Upcoming Catalysts
- From an investment into equities point of view – S&P 500 has fallen about 0.5%, on average, during the month of September. Stocks have tended to go up, on average, during every other month — other than a slight dip in February — over the past half century [link]( https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/01/investing/stock-market-september/index.html). However, this may soon be coming to an end as in the past week Investors stampeded into stocks and out of cash as global equity funds witnessed their biggest inflows since March 2021 while large-cap U.S. funds enjoyed a record haul, a weekly round-up by BofA showed. link
- Let’s take a look at the EV market dynamics and upcoming catalysts before getting into GOEV specifically, so we get a high-level understanding of the bigger picture. The global EV market is expected to be valued at $725.1 Billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 27.19% from $171.26 in 2021 source. This is expected to grow to $1.007 trillion by 2027 which is an average of 2 sources - source 1, source 2, another source actually has the market valued at $2.5 trillion but it’s a bit of an outlier compared to the other 2 [source 3](https://www.globene