Disclaimer: I am long $DJT, average in the $7s. Not financial advice, just how I see it. The market still treats this like a dead social media stock, but that is about to change with the merger (assuming it goes through which imho is a pretty solid bet). Tear it apart if you think I’m wrong.
TLDR:
$DJT is merging with TAE Technologies, a Google-backed fusion company that’s been at it since 1998. All stock, north of $6B, roughly a 50/50 split when it closes.
The hype already came and went after the announcement. It popped \~40% the day the deal was announced, but then gave all of it back (imo because of the overall market, and the remaining bag holders). Now the stock sits near the all time lows and the merger date is getting closer. The U.S. is in the middle of a MAJOR nuclear push, it’s putting real reactors critical this quarter, and the government is openly calling fusion a race it has to win. Finally, Trump is the biggest winner if this closes, and he has a habit of pointing federal policy at things he benefits from.
That being said. It can absolutely go wrong. The deal isn’t fully closed yet, there is dilution, fusion still doesn’t work commercially, and the Trump angle is a liability as much as a tailwind.
Main thesis:
Most people still think of $DJT as Truth Social stock. That ship sailed. Back in
December, DJT signed a real, definitive merger with TAE Technologies, a private Google backed fusion company. All stock, over $6 billion, and on close each side owns about half of the combined company. (Current CEO and TAE’s CEO run it together and Don Jr.’s going on the board)
When the merger goes through, the stock is no longer “Truth Social the dead social platform” and instead it becomes “Trump backed, Google backed, beaten-down stock that is taking a serious fusion company public, right into the friendliest nuclear policy environment in fifty years, with energy demand skyrocketing, fierce Cold War like competition with China, and fusion being a strategic technology for the U.S. government (For Trump who happens to be the president, and for any other president out into the future).
The price is at a 52 week low with a mkt cap of roughly $2B. The chart’s ugly as hell and no one is ready for the merger.
The fusion story isn’t in the price at all imho, and with power demand skyrocketing in general, and fusion being the best known method to produce electricity, I don’t think that story has a clear ceiling.
AI is not something you can stop chasing, we are in the middle of Cold War 2.0 and it’s America vs China with models, compute, and energy as the main battle fronts. China is WAY ahead with energy, and America has a stated bipartisan goal of beating China in energy, which means increased investment. A lot of it!
And it’s already happening:
After decades of nothing,
\- Antares took its Mark-0 reactor critical on June 4 at Idaho National Lab. First privately
built non-light-water reactor to go critical in the U.S. in over forty years.
\- Valar’s Ward 250 went critical June 18 in Utah and started ramping power a few days
later.
\- Aalo Atomics is next in line in the next few days, with final DOE sign-off confirmed today by the energy secretary.
These run under Trump’s nuclear energy executive orders, which set a goal of at least three advanced reactors critical by July 4, 2026 (for America’s 250th birthday) and an aim to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050.
Chris Wright (the energy secretary) keeps
saying we are in a historic nuclear renaissance, and he keeps bumping his own number up as it goes (one or two reactors back in late 2025, then three, now a fourth is happening)
There’s money behind the talk, too. At the end of June the DOE put up $17.5 billion in loans to speed ten large reactors. Amzn backed company goes public, Altman invests in nuclear, and all the mega caps are talking about nuclear and invested into it.
Why fusion, why now?
AI